The goaltending market this summer was, for me at least, the most interesting part of the July free agent frenzy. 14 goaltenders from the summer’s free agent class have had significant NHL roles so far this year. Others went unsigned (Curtis Joseph, Olaf Kolzig and Manny Fernandez), while still others went to Europe, had to wait for an opportunity and were signed after training camp, or were signed to two-way deals.

Let’s consider those players who did sign. Here’s the list, ranked by save percentage this season. The number in brackets is their average save percentage over the last three years.

• Antero Niittymaki, TB: 13GP, .931 SV% (.902)
• Brian Boucher, PHI: 5GP, .930 SV% (.904)
• Ty Conklin, STL: 7GP, .926 SV% (.911)
• Craig Anderson, COL: 26GP, .921 SV% (.928)
• Dwayne Roloson, NYI: 15GP, .916 (.909)
• Andrew Raycroft, VAN: 8GP, .916 SV% (.891)
• Average NHL Starter: .913 SV%
• Nikolai Khabibulin, EDM: 18GP, .909 SV% (.909)
• Martin Biron, NYI: 13GP, .907 SV% (.914)
• Jason Labarbera, PHX: 5GP, .907 SV% (.907)
• Average NHL Backup: .904 SV%
• Mathieu Garon, CBJ: 10GP, .902 SV% (.908)
• Brent Johnson, PIT: 7GP, .902 SV% (.900)
• Joey MacDonald, TOR: 4GP, .898 SV% (.900)
• Manny Legace, CAR: 8GP, .890 SV% (.905)
• Scott Clemmensen, FLA: 7GP, .888 SV% (.911)

And over in Europe:

• Fredrik Norrena (SEL): 21GP, .912 SV%
• Martin Gerber (KHL): 25GP, .910 SV%
• Mikael Tellqvist (KHL): 11GP, .905 SV%

The average starter numbers are the average of the 30 NHL goalies with the most games played; the average backup numbers come from goalies 31-60. It’s still early to evaluate these players, but it can’t hurt to take a quick snapshot. I think the best way to look at these players is to calculate how many goals these players will gain/lose their teams at their current rates. The average starter last year faced 1611 shots; meaning that the average starter from this year would allow 140 goals, while the average backup would allow 155 goals; a 15 goal difference. Here’s the difference for our list (projecting using their current save percentages):

• Niittymaki: +28 goals
• Boucher: +27 goals
• Conklin: +21 goals
• Anderson: +13 goals
• Roloson: +5 goals
• Raycroft: +5 goals
• Average Starter: 140 goals (0)
• Khabibulin: -7 goals
• Biron: -10 goals
• Labarbera: -10 goals
• Average Backup: 155 goals (-15)
• Garon: -15 goals
• Johnson: -18 goals
• MacDonald: -24 goals
• Legace: -37 goals
• Clemmensen: -40 goals

Now, these numbers shouldn’t be taken too seriously; they’re based on some short sample sizes so all of these goalies have time to either make up or lose ground. I’d suggest the actual spectrum of ability for starters to be near Anderson at the top end (.921 SV%) and near the average backup (.904 SV%) at the low end.

The most interesting thing about this list is how few goals are actually gained or lost in the middle of the spectrum. If the goaltending’s really good (Craig Anderson, .921 SV%, is a good example) a team gains a lot, and if it’s really bad (we’ll toss out Manny Legace and his .890 SV% as an example) the team loses a lot, but there’s very little difference in the middle. This fits rather nicely with what Ken Holland has been saying (and doing) in Detroit:

My feeling is if you can get one of the five or six best goalies in the league you can spend the money. We can’t get into those guys, and the difference between the eighth goalie in the league and the 15th goalie, it’s a big difference in money. It’s not a big difference in performance.

I almost wonder if Holland wasn’t soft-selling that a little bit. There were three established starters in the market this summer (Roloson, Biron and Khabibulin), and the difference between them over an entire season works out to 15 goals (assuming the current divide between them doesn’t narrow, and their track record suggests it will). Tyler Dellow (the source of the Holland quote above) reckons that six goals is the equivalent of one win; meaning that there’s roughly a 2.5 win difference between the best and worst of those goaltenders. That makes it extremely difficult for teams that gamble heavily in money and term on a mid-tier starter to come out ahead.

The only team that invested heavily in money and term this past summer was the Edmonton Oilers, who signed Nikolai Khabibulin. Adding to the foolishness of investing money and term was the fact that Khabibulin has averaged between 15 and 20 games on the injured list each season; it isn’t surprising that he’s on the injured list now. The move was widely panned by the blogosphere (this post, entitled “A Loser Move by a Loser Franchise”, recaps the reasons nicely) and the situation will likely only get worse as Khabibulin continues to age.

Teams that opted to pick up bargain-bin goaltenders have done well so far; many have exceeded expectations, while even the worst of the lot (Garon) has been a legitimate backup. Scott Clemmensen is the sole exception here, but given that he only had one NHL season under his belt, it seemed obvious to me in the summer and still seems obvious to me now that he should have been viewed as a significant risk.

All of this tells me that Ken Holland had it right; aside from the half-dozen legitimate difference makers in the NHL, teams are well-advised to try and find bargains in net. Particularly given the difficulties inherent in fitting a competitive team under the cap.