Archive for January, 2010

Brian Burke today managed what nobody seemed to believe was possible in the salary cap era: he pulled off a pair of multi-player trades on the same team, drastically changing the image of his team and two others in the process. We’ll get to Toronto, but let’s take a quick look at the Anaheim Ducks and Calgary Flames first.

Anaheim Ducks

In: Jason Blake, Vesa Toskala

Out: Jean-Sebastien Giguere

For the Ducks, the algebra here was pretty straight forward: they just re-signed Jonas Hiller to be their starting goaltender, and that meant they had $6.0 million invested in backup goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere. They needed to move money around, and to do that they were willing to take on Vesa Toskala’s remaining dollars (he’ll be a free agent at year end) in order to get their hands on Jason Blake. Blake should be able to fill a top-six role; he’s a useful second line winger who does a lot of things well but is also prone to long scoring droughts.

This trade makes Anaheim better today, although they’d better hope Hiller stays healthy, as Toskala’s essentially a $4.0 million paperweight at this point. Giguere’s a tricky asset to figure value for, since there aren’t a ton of teams likely willing to take the risk on him, but it’s a little surprising the Ducks couldn’t squeeze a little more out of Toronto. Still, as I said they’re a better team right now because of the trade, so in that sense it’s probably a win for the club.

Calgary Flames

In: Niklas Hagman, Matt Stajan, Ian White, Jamal Mayers

Out: Dion Phaneuf, Fredrik Sjostrom, Keith Aulie

Dion Phaneuf has been an overrated commodity for years, but faced some surprisingly bad press this season, despite the fact that he’s actually made some big strides. His offence has decreased from last season but offence was never the problem with Phaneuf. This season, Phaneuf’s been playing top-pairing minutes against the best opponents alongside Robyn Regehr and normally his loss would constitute a major short-term blow. In this case, however, the Flames are absurdly deep on the back end and between Regehr, Jay Bouwmeester, Mark Giordano and incoming defenceman Ian White the Flames should be okay in the short-term. In the long term, this really becomes a question of whether Phaneuf will be a better defenceman than Bouwmeester, and Sutter might be okay here too. Phaneuf will have the edge in offence, but Bouwmeester should be the better two-way player.

Matt Stajan and Niklas Hagman represent some fairly serious improvements to the Flames forward corps, and it’s an offensive transplant the team desperately needed. Stajan was the most effective scorer on the Leafs’ power play and should help the Flames in that department, while both he and Hagman should help the team score 5-on-5.

Jamal Mayers is basically deadweight and I have no idea what interest Sutter has in him; he’ll bring a physical game and that vaunted veteran leadership but other than that he’s of little interest.

Toronto Maple Leafs

In: Dion Phaneuf, Jean-Sebastien Giguere, Fredrik Sjostrom, Keith Aulie

Out: Niklas Hagman, Matt Stajan, Ian White, Jason Blake, Jamal Mayers, Vesa Toskala

The word ‘bold’ almost seems understated looking at Burke’s moves today, which completely changed the dynamic of both his blue line and goaltending while gutting the top half of his forward corps.

Jean-Sebastien Giguere is an immediate upgrade in net and will easily be the best goaltender between the pipes since Ed Belfour held the goaltending job before the lockout. Giguere has struggled since the death of his father midway through last season, but he does possess the talent to bounce back and Toronto should be a good fit for him.

Dion Phaneuf is a top-pairing defenceman right now, and a move to the Eastern Conference should suit him just fine. His defence has improved this past year; he’s played top-pairing minutes and done a fairly good job of it, although his offence has suffered. Fans in Toronto will love him, while fans everywhere else will undoubtedly hate him. His offence will bounce back and his defence should remain at least passable.

Fredrik Sjostrom isn’t anything special but will more than replace Jamal Mayers, but that’s where the good news ends up front. The loss of players like Stajan, Blake and Hagman will have a negative effect on Toronto’s offence; they’re all more or less support players, but combined they represent roughly one-third of Toronto’s even-strength offence. The Leafs are ludicrously heavy on the back end, with nine NHL defenceman (seven of whom will earn $2.9 million-plus this season) at a combined cap hit of just under $31 million. Phil Kessel, Alexei Ponikarovsky and Mikhail Grabovksi are now the only semi-legitimate offensive threats up front. The team desperately needs to shift some money from the back end to the forwards, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Burke isn’t finished.

Still, with that caveat, the Leafs are probably better today if only because they’ve stopped the gaping wound in net.

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The Tampa Bay Lightning ownership situation has been a bit of a circus ever since Oren Koules and Len Barrie first teamed up to purchase the team. Koules made his money in the entertainment business; being most notably involved in the Saw series, but prior to that he had dreams of a professional hockey career and had some pretty good WHL seasons in the early ‘80’s; among others he was teammates with Kelly Hrudey and Ken Daneyko. Len Barrie was a more successful hockey player; he had a nearly 200-game NHL career, but he made his money as a real estate developer.

I’ll skip over the details, which are available elsewhere, but suffice to say that both of these men had definite ideas about how a hockey team should be run, and some definite disagreements. Combine that with the less than ideal financial footing the team started out with, and the franchise has mostly been a sideshow under their oversight.

Thus, when The Hockey News broke the story on Thursday night that Gary Bettman was brokering a deal between the dysfunctional partnership and investor Jeffrey Vinik, it came as no surprise. What did surprise me was the reaction of Ken Campbell of THN:

First of all, by all accounts, Vinik is not a hockey guy. He’s a limited partner in the Boston Red Sox and from what we understand, the Lightning is being presented to him by NHL commissioner Gary Bettman as an investment opportunity. Say what you want about former Lightning owners Oren Koules and Len Barrie, but at least they were passionate about the sport.
Vinik has forged a career as one of America’s most aggressive hedge fund managers. Now, my Grade 11 economics class didn’t teach me much, but from what I can gather, hedge fund managers take large amounts of money from rich people and invest them, often in high-risk, high-reward propositions where they try to perform better than the stock market, then flip the commodity when it reaches maximum value.
So if Vinik is approaching his potential purchase of the Lightning with the same goal in mind, fans in Tampa can expect a largely absentee owner who will get in and try to make a return on his investment before getting out.

For starters, I’m really not sure that having a hockey guy owner is nearly as good a thing as Campbell implies. A lot of the problems (not all, but a lot) associated with the Barrie/Koules partnership stemmed from the fact that both figured they knew how to run a hockey team. In contrast, if Jeffrey Vinik comes to the team without the idea that he knows best, he’s likely to let a qualified candidate run the team.

The concern that Vinik will flip the asset is probably well-founded, but to make flipping it worthwhile it needs to gain some value first. The best way to make the Lightning do that is through sound fiscal management and most importantly success on the ice. On-ice success is the tonic that eventually cures attendance woes and franchise instability, and whatever his motivation if Vinik is dedicated to that goal he’s likely to be a fine owner.

Vinik’s background also makes him an interesting owner to me; if there’s one owner likely to look for a different, more innovative approach from his team’s front office, it’s him. He’s had previous experience as a sports investor with the Boston Red Sox, the baseball team which employs Theo Epstein, one of the adherents to baseball’s Moneyball strategy, which is best described less as a reliance on statistics and more as a combination of a rational, unemotional approach and a willingness to use any resources available.

It’s a strategy that would seem to fit with Vinik’s approach to investing, which he’s likely to carry over into sport. From Duke Engineering’s website (Vinik got a degree in engineering before going into finance):

Vinik, who gathers data and makes investment decisions on some 25 companies a day, takes a steadfastly non-emotional approach to market analysis. “The stock market is not purely rational, so it’s resistant to purely analytical models,” he says. “But if you structure your variables properly, you have a high probability of getting a productive answer and making a good decision. Emotions are usually wrong, so I don’t try to examine what I’m feeling so much as look at what other people are doing, analyze their actions, and then go in the opposite direction.”
Vinik says his renowned ability to make accurate-and lucrative-market calls has been bolstered by the education he received at Duke. “An engineering education seemed like the right foundation for whatever I wanted to do,” he says. “I was drawn to the use of mathematical and scientific principles to achieve solutions.” Not that all of Vinik’s most vivid memories are set in the lab or the classroom. “I took a surveying course in the second half of my freshman year, which happened to be the coldest winter in Durham’s history,” he recalls. “We were working in slush, snow, and bone-chilling air, and you’d better believe that we learned to survey well and do it quickly.”
Vinik also still remembers the semester he spent with a professor and team of fellow students engineering the water runoff in the Duke Gardens. “We broke down the problem, analyzed it piece by piece, and figured out the best approach,” he says. “In that regard, it really wasn’t that different from what I do now.”

CNN wrote a great profile on Vinik back in 2000, one which is probably worth reading for anyone trying to form a picture of the potential Lightning owner. Among other things one gleans is a more intense interest in sports than Campbell would have his readers thinking – Vinik loves basketball, coaches soccer and played baseball as a teenager. He’s also blessed with self-confidence and a willingness to run risks – risks which have sometimes backfired, but which have also made him a fortune as an investor.

Vinik may or may not turn out to be an ideal owner, but as a fan of the Lightning I know I’d be optimistic.

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The Washington Capitals have sent Michael Nylander away again, but this time they’re moving him a little further than Grand Rapids of the American Hockey League. They’ve re-assigned the veteran centre to Jokerit, in the top Finnish league.

Nylander’s familiar with the SM-Liiga; he played there during both NHL lockouts, impressively managing 30 points in 16 games in 1994-95 and hanging around just under a point-per-game pace over 23 outings with Karpat in 2004-05.

Nylander’s AHL numbers have been tepid, at best – two goals and 16 assists in 24 games, along with a minus-8 rating. Still, he should be an impact player over in Europe, and most importantly for Jokerit it will be the Capitals who have to pay him; they get cap relief but no relief whatsoever for that nearly $5.0 million in salary that they’ll pay him for the remainder of this season and 2010-11 as well.

Technorati Tags: michael nylander,washington capitals,grand rapids griffins,jokerit

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Lots of different points for conversation in today’s video, and once again a ton of stuff I agree with. These two go into the Phil Kessel trade and the Bruins’ current struggles, the debate in Montreal over Carey Price and Jaroslav Halak, as well as the cost for Ilya Kovalchuk and other trades that might be made. It’s a good segment.

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Brian Rafalski is generally acknowledged as one of the top defencemen in the game; he’s been a phenomenal two-way defenceman ever since his rookie year with the New Jersey Devils at the tender age of 26.

It’s unusual for a defenceman to appear as a rookie, fully-developed, and go on to play high-end hockey for the rest of his career; generally, teams pick up on these players well before they reach that level of maturity. It isn’t like Rafalski was hiding, either; much is made of the fact that he came over to the NHL from Europe, but he only went to Europe after a year in the USHL and four years of college hockey with the University of Wisconsin.

Size is the issue brought up most of the time, and while that’s accurate it’s a little too vague. After all, Rafalski was a top defenceman in Finland for three years, and he only got better in the playoffs (in 30 playoff games, Rafalski scored 16 goals and 36 points over three seasons). Surely some of the scouts over there should have been willing to look past his size and recommend him to their bosses.

There was an interesting quote from Lou Lamoriello back in the 2007 playoffs about Rafalski; he was asked why Rafalski went over to Europe and only came back to North America when he was much older, and Lamoriello was uncharacteristically blunt in explaining the reason:

[Rafalski] was at the University of Wisconsin, and he had success there. But, you know, in those earlier days, size and strength played such a role in all of our minds, he went over to Europe and quite frankly we were looking for a certain type of defenceman. We said to our European scouts, ‘Forget who they are, where they’re from, tell us in your mind who is the top defenseman in Europe.’
Danny called and said, ‘You’re going to be surprised, but it’s Brian Rafalski here in Finland.’ We went from there. He’s been here since.

The line that stands out to me is “a certain type of defenceman” because it implies rather strongly that NHL teams are (or at the very least were) not simply looking at individual players and deducing that they lacked the necessary abilities to offset for their size deficiency, but eliminating certain categories of players (in this case small defencemen) altogether.

It’s also clearly a blind-spot that wasn’t unique to the Devils’ organization. Rafalski wasn’t a hidden gem; everybody had seen him, or should have. Before he ever played in the NHL, Andreychuk was named the best hockey player outside of the league by the Sporting News, and he’d won a host of both NCAA awards and other trophies in the SM-Liiga; he’d also been considered for the U.S. entry at the World Juniors.

Asked about how Rafalski was missed during the player’s rookie year, one NHL scout said that no team had realized his intangibles, but the fact is that Rafalski’s abilities were all too tangible; he’d had sustained success in both NCAA and in Europe. It was rather a blindness to that success, thanks to a league-wide belief that a player that small couldn’t make it at hockey’s highest level.

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Lots of interesting stuff circulating about the Montreal Canadiens right now. According to Aftonbladet in Sweden, and passed along by Dave Stubbs of the Montreal Gazeete, the NHL is blocking Georges Laraque’s attempt to move to Sweden. According to the Swedish paper, the issue has to do with Laraque’s no-trade clause, something that makes little sense since Laraque is presumably willing to waive it to play overseas.

Also of interest is this addendum to the report that goaltender Carey Price was called out by teammate Andrei Markov last week. Again from Dave Stubbs, but this time via Twitter:

Price just gave Markov a BIG hug… then looked up to the pressbox, laughing.

That is awesome stuff; exactly the right response from Markov.

Yesterday’s article on Garnet Exelby and Jamal Mayers sparked a bit of conversation on the Leafs decision to move their first round pick (as well as their second round pick and next year’s first round pick) to Boston in exchange for Phil Kessel. The issue isn’t as simple as asking if Kessel is a better player than whoever the Bruins end up drafting. The question is whether Kessel plus the $5.4 million Toronto spent to sign him is worth more than that draft pick, and I think that’s probably not the case. I can see why Burke made the trade, and it isn’t a one-sided issue, but if he knew at the time that Toronto was going to be a lottery team I doubt he would have pulled the trigger.

Sticking with Mayers and Exelby, it was nice to hear Ron Wilson speak candidly about what he thought of their desire to leave town:

“Just play better as simple as that and your numbers show if you play well or not. Nobody’s entitled to ice-time. Unfortunately a lot of players today actually believe they’re entitled no matter how they’re performance is to just automatically play without accountability or responsibility.”

Rumours have been circulating for a few days now that Phoenix might be open to moving Peter Mueller, and if so he could be a major bargain for whoever ends up acquiring him. Kent Wilson took a long look at Mueller over at Five Hole Fanatics, and I’m in agreement with his take for the most part, with the single exception being that Dave Tippett has done his best to shelter Mueller, who was the eighth overall pick in the 2006 Draft.

Finally, I couldn’t resist passing along this scathing critique of a piece by Chicago Sun-Times columnist Rick Morrissey. According to Morrissey, the biggest issue with those photos that to light over at Kurtenblog a few days ago isn’t anything to do with partying, drinking, or the like – it’s that John Madden doesn’t look like Bob Probert when he takes his shirt off. I’ll leave the long critique to the good people at Second City Hockey, but I’d personally like to thank Morrissey for doing his part (however small) to contribute to the demise of print media. Thanks, Rick.

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Dan Barnes, for my money the best media man in Edmonton, has an interesting article up today about Oilers G.M. Steve Tambellini. In it, Tambellini says that he has full responsibility to address all areas of the organization, to bring them to a point where they “are not good, but great.”

Tambellini hit on two points: first, that the players are working hard (“Our players have worked pretty hard”), but that there need to be changes, and second that the Oilers brain trust is even now evaluating which players will be a part of the organization next season.

“The first step is getting through this period as far as the assessment of people who truly want to be an Oiler and get to the next level. That involves an evaluation of character, skill, talent, courage, everything. As we go through this time between now and the trading deadline we’ll be clear as to what our options are. If we can make ourselves better (at the deadline) we’re going to do it.”

Those generic sounding quotes struck me as familiar; together they form two of the three pillars to the Steve Tambellini Talking to The Media Trinity (the third is injuries).

Tambellini’s been saying pretty much the same thing since he took the job. From November of 2008:

“We’re working hard.”

“That assessment is always one that is ongoing. We’re 21 games into the season. We went through extreme travel there for a few weeks. You’re always trying to get better every day. If there’s something out there that makes sense for our team to get better, we’ll consider it. But right now this is what we have and our job is to get better.”

Or we could look at Tambellini’s 2008-09 postmortem from last April:

“The job now is to think about how much of that can we get from what we have. We’ll make that assessment and if we don’t have internally, how do we acquire it?”

“It’s important that we take our time right now and that we review all aspects.”

The really critical failing of Barnes’ piece is that he implies that Tambellini has only recently been put in full control of the team, that if his moves going forward don’t fix the Oilers, then it will be time to start shifting the blame from Kevin Lowe to him. That’s dead wrong, because it’s exactly what the Oilers organization tried to peddle last year.

From Jason Gregor of Oilers Nation, last April:

The plan, as I was told today, was to bring in Tambellini and let him assess the team for the year. It is clear now, that this team was not as good as the organization thought they were and now it is up to Tambellini to start the renovations.

Tambellini will put his fingerprints on this team ranging from the coaching, to veterans moving out and which youngsters will be coming in. It would be unrealistic to expect massive trades and a complete purging of the team, but don’t be surprised to see at least one, if not two, significant player moves over the summer.

That line of thought was supported by Robin Brownlee in Metronews:

With Kevin Lowe stepping back from day-to-day dealings at the start of the season when he became president of hockey operations, it’ll be up to Steve Tambellini to orchestrate the changes that are bound to follow.

MacTavish stepping aside will throw the status of assistant coaches Charlie Huddy, Bill Moores and Kelly Buchberger into question.

Likewise, Tambellini will take a long look at his scouting staff, who are overseen by assistant GM Kevin Prendergast. Again, expect change.

As for player moves, well, that’s a whole other column, and I’ll take a look at that next weekend after some of the dust settles.

Suffice to say, after taking this season to assess a team and a hockey-operations staff that has been built by Lowe since he became GM in 2000, Tambellini will make his mark.

In short, when Steve Tambellini talks about assessing the players he has, it’s either a null statement or the mark of a fool; he’s been assessing what is essentially the same roster for a season and a half now. If he doesn’t know what he has after more than 130 games of failure by his organization, it’s just one more indication that he’s woefully unequipped to be the man in charge of an NHL franchise.

Still, perhaps the last quote Barnes mentions was enough to show that anyway. From the article:

“We’re extremely confident of where we’re going.”

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Craig Custance of the Sporting News is reporting that not only has the agent for Jamal Mayers been given a green light to try and stir up interest in his client, but also that Garnet Exelby’s agent has been allowed to do the same.

Toronto Maple Leafs’ GM Brian Burke says that it isn’t about the team; Exelby just wants more playing time than he’s been getting in Toronto. Of the eight regulars on the Toronto blueline, none have been receiving less ice-time than Exelby, who was acquired from the Atlanta Thrashers over the summer.

There is one interesting coincidence to the fact that both Mayers and Exelby are likely on their way out of town. Leaving aside whatever other flaws they have in their games, both are physical players – one might even say truculent players – but more than that, both are undisciplined players. Among Leafs forwards, no player takes as many penalties (relative to ice-time) as Mayers – who astoundingly takes nearly five times as many penalties as he draws. On the back end, it’s a similar story with Exelby, who takes seven penalties for every penalty he draws.

Given the fact that both of these players would be near the bottom end of the roster on skill alone, constant trips to the penalty box are not a luxury either can afford. It’s also a luxury the Leafs, with their league-worst penalty kill (69.4%) can’t afford. Together, even with seriously limited ice-time, Mayers and Exelby have put the Leafs short-handed on 28 occasions – and with that penalty kill, that’s a number that translates into an extra nine goals against.

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According to The Team 990 in Montreal, following last week’s 4-3 overtime loss to the St. Louis Blues, veteran defenceman Andrei Markov had some harsh words for teammate Carey Price. As per the report, Markov told Price, “If you are not going to play with heart, stay home. We don’t need you here,” at which point some players defended Price and others sided with Markov.

The first thing to note is that this could be nothing more than frustration after a very tough loss. Ty Conklin was outstanding for the Blues, but Montreal still managed to overcome a 3-1 deficit by scoring two goals in the third period and forcing overtime. Despite Montreal’s strong game, several of the goals scored against Price had some odour to them, and Markov had a front row seat to the final goal of the game; he had Andy McDonald up in the high slot but McDonald beat Price cleanly with a strong shot. Here are the highlights:

I’d also imagine that Price’s demeanour doesn’t help matters much, particularly after he’s played a flawed game. Two years back, in their 2008 Future Watch issue, The Hockey News ran a profile of Price which related an interesting anecdote about his professional debut (with the Hamilton Bulldogs of the AHL) and some relevant quotes from coach Don Lever.

Just minutes before his team’s first playoff game against the Rochester Americans last spring, Hamilton Bulldogs coach Don Lever was speaking to his team when he glanced over at the club’s rookie goalie to check his body language and determine whether the 20-year-old was nervous. And there was Carey Price, just a couple of weeks after completing his junior hockey career, leaning back in his stall with his arms clasped over his chest, yawning. It wasn’t as though Lever had asked the Montreal Canadiens to foist this rookie upon him in the playoffs, so seeing Price suffering from either boredom or sleep deprivation didn’t exactly have Lever bubbling over with confidence.

It’s fair to note that Price recorded a shutout that night, and led the team to the Calder Cup, so however irritating his approach to the game might be, it works for him. Lever however was quick to note that approach when asked what Price needed to work on:

He has to be more focused. I think sometimes his lackadaisical personality catches him flat-footed.

There have been similar stories over the years, but the moment I heard Markov’s comment my mind went back to that story. It’s worth stressing that it’s all conjecture, and my personal feeling is that it doesn’t much matter where a goalie’s mind is at as long as he does a good job of stopping pucks (and despite his unfortunate win/loss record this season, Price does that) but it’s easy to imagine how that attitude might grate on some teammates. Then again, as I said at the outset, it’s possible that this was nothing more than frustration after a tough loss.

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The ongoing dispute between Petr Sykora and the Minnesota Wild has not been pretty to watch, even from a distance. There was the concussion to start the year, and then healthy-scratching after Sykora returned from the injury. After that, there was more friction because coach Todd Richards insisted he skate warm-ups despite being a healthy scratch, despite the fact that the other scratch, James Sheppard, did not have to do warm-ups. Both beat reporter Michael Russo and Sykora’s agent Allan Walsh tweeted that the Wild were treating Sykora without respect, an argument that Russo elaborated on afterward:

But here’s the deal: Sykora had a mega-deal in Russia. He was convinced to come here on a one-year deal by Chuck Fletcher, whom Sykora immensely respects, with apparently certain promises, like ice time and linemates.

It’s obvious Sykora’s camp doesn’t feel like he’s being given a chance. He’s been scratched three times, played fourth line many nights, has averaged 12:01 of ice time.

There were rumours of trade talks that fell apart, and Sykora was put on and eventually cleared waivers. For a guy with 300 career goals and just shy of 1000 games, the treatment had to sting, but the good news is that it’s almost over. Yesterday, the Wild assigned Sykora to their AHL affiliate, the Houston Aeros. Sykora will not report to the AHL team, and according to Michael Russo, he’s on the verge of being a free agent:

However, Sykora has officially declined to report. The two sides have mutually agreed to terminate his contract, and once approved by the NHL in the next day or two, Sykora will immediately become an unrestricted free agent.

In essence, Sykora will be free to sign with any team before the March 3 trade deadline and the Wild will be free of the remaining $600,000 or so of Sykora’s contract and salary-cap hit.

Sykora hasn’t been particularly good this year, but then he hasn’t had much ice-time and he’s also had to fight back from a concussion. He was useful for Pittsburgh last year, mostly on the power play, and that’s almost certain to be the role he plays for whoever picks him up: cheap power play specialist.

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