In the last post on Hall and Seguin I considered their point-per-game scoring numbers and compared those with other top-10 picks since the lockout. In the comments, I was asked to also provide a second metric: percentage of team offence. The idea behind percentage of team offence is that it weeds out players who play for powerhouse teams and gives a bit of a boost to guys who play for weaker squads.
In this case, Tyler Seguin‘s team isn’t bad, but it’s not great, while Taylor Hall plays for a powerhouse outfit that sent four players to Team Canada at this last World Junior tournament. Naturally, we’d expect Hall’s numbers to be a little better. How much better? Here’s the chart, again with comparables from the post-lockout era:
The players outlined in black are Seguin and Hall, and suddenly it’s Seguin sandwiched between Steven Stamkos and John Tavares, with Hall bringing up the rear with players like Matt Duchene and Nazem Kadri. The fact that there’s an incredibly wide margin here, and that Seguin was just behind Hall makes me wonder if the former might not be a better prospect than the latter. Expect to see a ton of Hall vs. Seguin posts as I try to figure it out.
Other interesting things on that chart:
- Once again, Patrick Kane is right behind Sidney Crosby, and those two are a ways ahead of the pack. Kane was a tremendous first overall pick – especially since there was some question if he would go first on draft day.
- John Tavares moves up the rankings a bit here and presents a reasonable challenge to the top two. I don’t think he’ll be quite the same player as either of them, but it’s still an encouraging sign.
- Again, I doubt that John McFarland is a top-10 pick on draft day.
- Jordan Staal and Mikkel Boedker continue to show up near the bottom of the charts here. I wonder how much Staal’s two-way play factored into his selection (I’d guess a lot) and I’m still trying to figure out why the Coyotes took Boedker ahead of Bailey, Hodgson and Tyler Myers.