After a year’s worth of speculation crammed into a few short days, Ilya Kovalchuk was finally traded to the New Jersey Devils. Going with him are defenceman Anssi Salmela and Atlanta’s second round draft pick. Heading to the Thrashers is an interesting package headlined by defenceman Johnny Oduya and including forwards Niclas Bergfors, Patrice Cormier, and the Devils first and second round picks.
Don Waddell took a page from the Kevin Lowe school of NHL general manager-ship, stressing all along that the Thrashers needed to acquire multiple assets in exchange for Kovalchuk. He ended up moving three assets for five assets, so I’m not sure that angle really works, but the key item to note here is that Waddell didn’t manage to acquire one bona fide, unmarred NHL player in exchange.
The key to the deal on the Thrashers end is Johnny Oduya, who after two strong seasons is suffering both offensively and defensively. Injuries have played a factor, as has the absence of regular partner Paul Martin, one of the game’s finest two-way defencemen. Oduya’s played easier minutes than Martin when the two are separated, but it’s fairly clear that the two do their best work together. Here’s a quick comparison of +/-, shots +/- and Corsi over the last 2-1/2 seasons for the pair of them. To make the comparison clearer, I’ve divided down to 10 goal/100 shot rates.
| Player | GF/10 | SF/100 | Corsi/100 |
| Paul Martin | 13.1 | 113.0 | 106.7 |
| Johnny Oduya | 12.5 | 103.1 | 109.2 |
| Together | 17.9 | 124.1 | 126.6 |
When either is on the ice, the Devils out-score, out-shoot and out-possess their opponents, but the effect is amplified when the two play together. However, Oduya’s struggled this season with Martin out; despite leading all NHL defencemen in his ratio of offensive zone draws, he has but four points and his plus/minus is far worse than it has been in either of the past two seasons. He’ll probably bounce back, and if he does he’ll be a key member of the Thrashers blue line, but he may not be able to have an immediate impact.
The second most important player in this deal is Niclas Bergfors. Bergfors attracted attention early this season as a scorer, but I really don’t believe he’ll ever be a consistent offensive threat at the NHL level. Bergfors is now on the verge of turning 23 (early next month), and he’s had four full seasons in the American Hockey League. He’s never hit the point-per-game mark. History shows us that a point-per-game at age 20 is a pretty fair line in the sand for predicting if an AHL player has a chance at a scoring career, but in his best season (at age 22/22) Bergfors fell well short of that mark. The most common word tossed around in describing Bergfors seems to be “engimatic” and I don’t know what the Thrashers see in him. The biggest loss with Kovalchuk’s departure is goals, and at this point Bergfors can’t be relied upon to play even a second line role.
Patrice Cormier hasn’t been a particularly good offensive player in the high-flying QMJHL, and his NHL upside at this point is probably one of the bottom two lines. He’s also damaged goods thanks to three vicious elbows over the span of a few weeks, the most famous of which (to the head of Mikael Tam) resulted in a season-ending suspension. He was a middling prospect to begin with and his senseless actions have raised legitimate questions about his character.
The Devils’ first round pick is bound to be a low one (near the second round) while the Thrashers’ second round pick is likely to be a high one (near the first round), and the fact the second round pick the Thrashers get is mitigated somewhat by Salmela’s move back to New Jersey.
I was initially very critical of Waddell’s move here, but upon further reflection I like it a little more, because I was underrating Oduya. I don’t really rate Bergfors or Cormier as especially desirable pieces – neither is a big help now and neither is likely to be a big help in the future. The biggest problem – the huge offensive hole the absence of Kovalchuk opens up – wasn’t addressed at all, and Waddell should have held out for a more capable forward, even if it meant sacrificing the extra prospect.
I think upon further reflection of this deal I like it less. I agree that Oduya’s the key to this deal, but he’s not especially big, he’s not especially tough, he’s not especially good offensively or on the power play, but he still brings a $3.5 million cap hit for two more years. He’s pretty much Ron Hainsey, except a few inches shorter and paid a million less, and the Thrashers already have a Ron Hainsey. Bergfors is Ales Kotalik 2. Cormier looks like his upside is probably Steve Ott or Colby Armstrong, except he’s not as good a scorer in junior as either of them were.
If Waddell had gotten Mattias Tedenby instead of Cormier I could almost be on board with this deal because I think Tedenby’s upside is pretty high. But even if Kovalchuk’s strictly a rental (and he is; the Devils have too many $ tied up in Elias, Rolston and Zubrus, have to re-sign Parise after next season, and have to re-sign or replace Paul Martin) and even if New Jersey craps out in the first round, it’s hard to see how the Devils lose this deal.
I think it was Kevin Allen who tweeted that the “surprise players” who were in the running for Kovalchuk were St. Louis and Ottawa. It’s hard to see how either of those teams would’ve offered less. Ottawa’s offer probably would’ve centred around Milan Michalek or Nick Foligno, Chris Campoli or Alex Picard and/or Brian Lee, and a first, and St. Louis almost certainly would’ve given up Patrik Berglund and one of their good defenseman prospects (other than Pietrangelo). Unless Cormier turns into Mike Fisher or Bergfors is actually young Daniel Alfredsson in disguise or they can leverage the massive amount of salary cap space they’re going to have next season into something spectacular, it’s hard to see how this deal works out well for Atlanta.
Seems like Waddell was too fixated on getting “NHL players”. I’d imagine teams would be reluctant to part with bona fide top 6 forwards or top 4 defensemen for a rental, no matter how good he is. Never mind asking for a bona fide top 6 forward AND a top 4 defenseman.
I don’t understand why he would refuse teams to ability to negotiate with Kovalchuk – he only hurt his bargaining position.
I don’t think waddell is going to be around next year, this was a very bad trade, even if he is just a “rental” player.
I think the biggest thing Waddell reliazed was the fact he wasnt going to get a huge return ,after all he made it public how much Kovi turned down that would have hurt his value , with Cormier I think Waddell is hoping for a Steve Downie type. And with Bergfors he is most definatly hoping for a guy who can emerge like the Detriot players of past. Maybe he just need’s to play in a differant system would be the thinking by Waddell. Overall Jersey got the better deal on paper but will it work out well with the team chemistry? is the bigggest question. The biggest mistake the Waddell made in this trade was sending him to a eastern conference team, after all aren’t the Thrasher “trying” to make the playoff’s?
I am very surprised that this was the deal that was pulled. Even Toronto could have paired better assets together then this(not that I wanted that)
Rsmotors:
Steve Downie was a better scorer at 17 than Cormier is at 19; I see what you’re getting at but the fact is that Downie’s upside makes that kind of investment understandable. Cormier’s does not.
Thanks for not putting a link to video of Cormier’s latest disgusting attack. Had to watch it on Sportsnet yesterday during the first intermission of the ‘Nucks game. I really don’t want to have to see that poor kid twitching on the ice. All sports channels that constantly air clips like that should be ashamed of themselves.
Regarding the trade, I really thought Waddell would get more for Kovalchuk. Now we have to be prepared for a devils team that can put Zajac, Parise and Kovalchuk out together. That’s more dangerous than anything in the east outside of Ovechkin, Backstrom and whoever is playing on their wing on a given night.
I think this is the final nail in the coffin for Waddel. And is the start of the final nail for the Thrashers in Atlanta. Just as they start to try and move on from the Phoenix debacle Atlanta is now going to become just another thorn in the side and distraction for the league to deal with. Again the board and Bettman will fight tooth and nail to convince us that it’s still working down their but it’s not. So anyone want to place a prediction of who moves first Atlanta or Phoenix?
Kyle don’t be surprised if Kovalchuk has a Maple Leaf on his chest next season.
I think if Kovalchuk is expecting 10M or more per season no NHL club is going to be insane enough to make that deal long term. He’s an elite one way player so the problem is that once he gets old enough to no longer be an elite offensive player he’s basically a 230lbs paperweight. If he only made those excessive contract demands to force Waddell to deal him than that’s another matter.
My only question with the deal is what’s wrong with Waddell waiting until the March 3rd deadline date. He would get a months time to either wait out clubs or to try to negotiate further. I just don’t see a con in terms of him waiting a month longer to make sure he’s getting everything he can. The lesson he should have taken from Kevin Lowe is to not pull off a trigger happy deal without exploring all avenues to the absolute limit. Because players like Kovalchuk are few and far between. A guy who averages over 40 goals a year is a rare commodity and this deal surprised me a bit even though he is only a rental player.
[...] in the bottom sixth) this is an idiotic statement. One might point out that New Jersey didn’t pay an overly dear price to acquire Kovalchuk, but that’s a tangential argument. The fact is that Lou Lamoriello has never had trouble [...]