On Friday, I wrote my evaluation of the players Atlanta got back in exchange for Ilya Kovalchuk. I wasn’t thrilled with either of the prospects joining the Thrashers; leaving aside Patrice Cormier’s emotional baggage he really doesn’t have the offensive flair to ever play above the third line, and Niclas Bergfors has never shown a particularly potent scoring touch at and professional level.
On Saturday, I caught an interview on XM Radio’s hockey channel, NHL Home Ice, with hockey analyst Pierre McGuire. What surprised me was McGuire’s description of the players involved – in defending the trade, he called Bergfors a ‘potential 25-goal scorer’ and described Cormier as the kind of player who would be a very good third-line guy on a cup-contending team or a second line guy on a bad team.
It’s rubbish, and it’s the kind of rubbish that often gets repeated about prospects. Projection is one thing, but the best projection of future results is past results, and in this case there’s no reason to believe McGuire’s optimistic projections.
We’ll start with an easy point: the offensive potential of Niclas Bergfors. In four seasons in the American Hockey League, Bergfors has scored 17, 13, 12 and 22 goals. In other words, he hasn’t been a consistent 20-goal scorer at the AHL level. Projecting him into a guy who can bang home 20 to 25 goals per season in the NHL is nothing but self-delusion at this point. Sure, he’s still relatively young (he turns 23 next month) but in this case the most likely outcome is that Bergfors gets tagged as enigmatic after a few lacklustre NHL seasons and has a fine career over in Europe.
Patrice Cormier’s scoring is not very good for an NHL prospect. For perspective, Cormier’s the same age as an Edmonton Oilers draft pick, Philippe Cornet. Cornet was a late pick, a late cut from Canada’s World Junior team, and a teammate of Cormier’s in Rimouski. He’s generally tagged as a candidate for bottom six work, with enough offence to keep him in the game. Last season he collected points at a far better pace than Cormier, finishing with 77 to Cormier’s 51. It’s a similar story this season. Cornet’s not a highly-touted prospect; he has a shot at an NHL job, but it’s a long way from a sure thing and it probably won’t be in a scoring role.
There’s plenty of other examples, but the point here is that Cormier’s offence has never looked like it will be good enough to get him a job on a scoring line, even for a bad NHL team. It may be that his defensive abilities counter for that; he certainly looked the part at the World Juniors. Then again, like another forward touted as the next elite shutdown centre thanks to his World Junior play, perhaps Cormier will end up struggling once he reaches the professional ranks.
I’m not writing this to attack these players. I’m not writing it to attack the Atlanta Thrashers. I’m not even writing it to take shots at Pierre McGuire. I’ve just come to the conclusion that when the majority of analysts use a word like ‘potential’ they aren’t talking about what a player will likely turn into – they’re talking about the best case scenario, if everything that can break right does. I understand why that is – prospects represent hope, and it’s a lot nicer for everyone involved , from the players to the fans, to pretend that things are going to work out that well. The reality, unfortunately, is generally a lot less rosy.
Equal value for Kovalchuk due to market conditions seemed impossible for Atlanta to get , but something rather than nothing was probably all they could hope for at this late stage . Prospects are always a crapshoot generally unless they are in top 10 prospects each season . Even top ten can prove fruitless at times . Example of players that Oilers are high on . Eberle may well turn out to be another diminutive forward unable to excel at NHL level due to size . Svensson has offensive talent , but defensively somewhat lazy and pathetic . Riley Nash may end up being best of lot of Oiler prospects . Should Oilers go for more size than Hall if they land No.1 drafting ? Oilers have found out the hard way, you cannot build a contender with diminutive skilled players in abundance . Oilers have also found you cannot build with size and little talent to go with it . League size keeps going up as talent level of bigger players does as well . Appears to me this years draft may be mediocer and no marquee (blue chip emerging stars ) sure things as in last 4-5 seasons .
Madjam:
The Oilers have found out the hard way that you can’t build a playoff team when you have idiots in the front office. I don’t know if I buy the size story; J-F Jacques has plenty of size but he’s a lousy player all the same.
The Oilers have a bunch of young, one-way talents and very few two-way guys on the roster. I think the fact that their players can’t play a 200-ft game is at least as significant as the fact they’re under 6′.
Willis – i’d like you to run an article on team revenues . Seems to me general revenues at even $75.00 average a seat in a 18,000 seat arena barely pays the players salaries . How can most teams make money averaging only around 15,000 fans /home game ? Managerial , travel, and road games , equipment , etc . must be big billing as well as other clubs like AHL affiliates , etc.. You see plenty of empty seats and wonder how theses clubs can exist ?
Bergfors is the kind of guy who scores 20 goals one season, maybe two or three seasons in a row, then disappears a few years later. I was thinking the other day his upside was as a lower case Kotalik. I’m thinking today his upside is maybe more like a slower Richard Zednik. Although if he had a 700+ game career like Zednik that would probably be a good career for him. Thrashers fans should probably hope he’s more Zednik or Brian Savage than Jan Hlavac or Eric Boguniecki.
I’m surprised you went O’Marra with the comparison to Cormier. After reading that sentence I was thinking the link was maybe Kyle Chipchura. He was captain of team Canada too.
Madjam I’m with Willis on this one it’s not there size that is the issue although adding some to there top six wouldn’t hurt. They need more talent that isn’t all the same. Outside of Hemsky, Penner and Gagne. No one else really has either the dynamic skills to create offense. Or they aren’t consistent enough or playing with similar players that don’t fit in cause they are all virtual clones of one another.
O’sullivan has a wicked but inaccurate shot but aside from that he’s no different. Nielsson has some great moves but lacks finish and consistency. Cogliano has great speed but hasn’t found his offensive game like other first rounder Gagne. Not to mention the fact that they’ve been out played and out preformed by other guys like Jacques, Stortini, Stone, Brule and Poultny. Probably means that those 3 a long with Horcoff, Morneau,and Pisani are all done as Oilers.
That’s not to say any of those 6 are bad players. In fact I think any team that decides to take a chance and grab them will be rewarded. The simple fact is none of them fit in the top six due to being to similar or not having the necessary offensive skills. And are to over paid to play in the bottom six especially with those other 5 cheaper guys that can do it just as well. Add to the fact, that the Oilers will have Eberle, Svenson and the First overall pick either Hall or Seguin fighting to get in with Penner, Hemesky and Gagne it’s time for the rest of them to move on and find success some where else.
Aside from that and figuring out who to put in nets next year and who’s staying and going on D. The Oilers need to find a good finisher as I doubt that all those young rookies of Eberle, Svensson and Hall or Seguin will be ready to play in the top six at the NHL level. Perhaps Filatov in Columbus can be had maybe there’s someone else. But if the Oilers are to have any success next year they need to find someone for Hemesky to give the puck to that’s going to put it in the back of the net.
just say “disconnection”
Although this article, as per the author’s own words, is not a shot at Pierre McGuire, could you please write one that is? I hate that little puke. More shit comes out of that guys mouth…goodness!