No player at this year’s World Junior Championships did as much to boost his stock as Swiss forward Nino Niederreiter. Generally ranked as a mid- late-first round pick prior to the tournament (although CSS had him ranked that low in their January midterm rankings) he started to get noticed after a strong tournament where he scored six goals and added 10 assists in just seven games.
Nobody has been as taken with Niederreiter as Kyle Woodlief’s Red Line Report. Immediately after the tournament, Niederreiter cracked Red Line’s projected top 10 for the 2010 draft, slotting in at number nine. It was an overdue elevation for the Portland Winterhawks forward, as we’ll see in a moment – he’d been one of the WHL’s most dynamic draft-eligible players even before the tournament began and would have been an absolute steal anywhere in the bottom half of the first round.
In Woodlief’s column yesterday, however, the Niederreiter love reached new heights, as Red Line now ranks him as the third-best draft eligible prospect, ahead of Windsor Spitfires defenceman Cam Fowler, who fell to fifth, and immediately behind the Hall/Seguin duo. On his Rising/Falling list, Woodlief explained that Neiderreiter kept getting better and better:
His inclusion on this list seems to have become an every month occurrence, but with the way he keeps elevating his level, we can’t avoid it.
That statement becomes very interesting when one considers how Niederreiter’s performance has shifted as the season has worn on. The chart below shows that season divided into thirds. Conveniently, the World Juniors fall right between the second and third divisions on the list below.
| League | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PTS/GM | ESG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHL (1/3) | 19 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 4 | 0.895 | 5 |
| WHL (2/3) | 18 | 15 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 1.333 | 11 |
| WJC | 7 | 6 | 4 | 10 | -2 | 1.429 | 4 |
| WHL (3/3) | 18 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -2 | 0.667 | 7 |
Over the season’s first segment, Niederreiter performed well if not spectacularly; that’s a mid- to late-first round pace. He went on a tear in December and that’s reflected in his second WHL segment – a segment which, if sustained over the entire season, would have put him in contention for first overall. We already know about his strong play at the World Juniors, which is certainly a big mark in his favour, particularly given that he was one of the youngest players competing. What really catches the eye is his post-WJC slump: his goal scoring is back down to where it was at the start of the season, his assists have dropped off and for the first time he’s a minus player over one of these segments.
It’s certainly possible that the statistics aren’t reflecting some incredible on-ice play that the scouts are picking up on, but with all due respect to Woodlief and Red Line, it seems more likely to me that Niederreiter’s WJC performance caught everybody’s eye, and he’s now being rated too highly as a result.
I think that when all is said and done Niederreiter will likely still fall to some lucky team in the middle of the draft. Like Atlanta, Detroit, Tampa, or Dallas. Well he may not fall that far but anything is possible. He certainly seems like a good prospect and with some grooming and patients could become a very good top six forward in the league. While everyone is talking about his offensive I’ve got to add and wonder. What is his defensive game like. Being a capable two way player would probably up his position then being just capable of putting up points.
I have a question you might be able to answer:
Why isn’t he part of the Swiss Olympic team? Is he ineligible because of age? Luca Sbisa played in the WJC and is part of the Olympic team so that’s not it…
As was evidenced in their game against the US, the Swiss have no offense to speak of. Sure Niederreiter is young and has real pro experience, but couldn’t he bring at least some punch to their lineup?
*meant to say he ‘has NO real pro experience’
Staal went #2 with only 68 points in 68 games in the OHL.
I think Nino has some of the same intangibles.
@ James Parent:
I’ve been wondering the same thing; I’m not actually sure why he was left off the team.
@ Traktor:
I tend to agree, based on what I’ve seen. On the other hand, given the choice between Staal, Toews, Backstrom and Kessel I’d say he went a little early. Nothing against Staal, who I like, just that he probably would have been a better pick at #6 than #2.
I quite like Niederreiter too, I just suspect he’s probably better suited as a 8-15 pick then as a top-5 guy.
Yeah I noticed the drop in his play too. Neiderritier is definitely belongs to the 8-15 catagory. The other thing that impresses me is that he is one of the youngest draft eligible players. This is basically his 17 yr old season.
I guess it all boils down to drafting philosophy.
If you think Nino has a 80% chance to become Brenden Morrow do you roll the dice with Connolly or Kabanov that might have more offensive potential but come with risk?
Nino to me is a very safe pick. Scouting is about projecting and there is not much not to like about Niederreiter. He has the size and strength, he battles hard, goes to all the dirty areas, has a great shot and quick release and and wonderful leadership skills.
I think his high end is Brendan Shanahan and low end is Brenden Morrow. Definitely worthy of a lottery pick IMO but we probably like different things in players. IIRC you were very bullish on Ryan Ellis whereas I didn’t think his upside (unreal potential no doubt) was worth the risk (if he doesn’t pan out as a huge offensive producer its probably a wasted pick because his size and defensive play are suspect).
@ Traktor:
I think that’s a very fair assessment, and with a lottery pick there’s the increased pressure not to screw it up.
The one caution is that some of the big busts (Bonsignore, for example) were regarded as safe picks to. I don’t see Niederreiter going down that path, just noting that there’s always risk, even with the safe picks.
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[...] scoring six goals for the overmatched Swiss over the course of the tournament. I’ve noted previously on this site that it was a performance which seems to have enamoured NHL scouts with him. Leaving aside the [...]