Archive for March, 2010

In this week’s chat we talk about the race for positioning, teams looking good, teams in trouble, year-end awards and more.

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With the Edmonton Oilers having clinched dead last in the NHL, they’re guaranteed one of the top two picks in this summer’s NHL entry draft. They aren’t, however, guaranteed the top pick; thanks to the NHL draft lottery, any of the five teams who finish at the bottom of the standings have a shot at that prized selection.

For teams missing out on the playoffs, it’s a nice consolation prize, but this season it seems to be a consolation prize that is going to be confined to Eastern Conference teams. Today’s reverse NHL standings:

1. Edmonton: 55 points

2. Toronto: 69 points

3. Tampa Bay: 72 points

4. New York Islanders: 72 points

5. Florida Panthers: 72 points

6. Carolina Hurricanes: 73 points

7. Columbus Blue Jackets: 77 points

The Blue Jackets are 6-2-2 over their last 10 games, and in the Eastern Conference would have an outside shot at a playoff spot (as an aside, 10th place St. Louis would be sitting solidly in sixth in the East). In the East, Toronto has made some noise of late with a 6-3-1 run, and since their pick goes to Boston there’s no consolation whatsoever in finishing in the top five, but the good news is that they have a realistic shot of finishing outside the lottery, provided they can put together a modest record over the final few games of the season.

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As with yesterday’s piece, we may as well lead with the playoff odds for the bubble teams in the Eastern Conference, courtesy of Sports Club Stats:

Flyers: 92.7%

Canadiens: 91.7%

Bruins: 84.5%

Thrashers: 11.2%

Rangers: 19.5%

Hurricanes: 0.2%

The picture is a little less decided than it is in the West, and the fact that Carolina is on this list at all (even with one in 500 odds) is a testament to both the team and the weakness of the competition.

The Canadiens, Flyers and Bruins are all tied at 82 points as of this morning, with six games remaining. Atlanta is two points back with five games remaining and the Rangers are four points back with six games left. Here are how the schedules breakdown for each team, with pivotal games in bold:

Flyers: @NYI, vs. MON, vs. DET, @TOR, @NYR, vs. NYR

Canadiens: vs. CAR, @PHI, vs. BUF, @NYI, @CAR, vs. TOR

Bruins: vs. FLA, @TOR, @WSH, vs. BUF, vs. CAR, @WSH

Thrashers: @WSH, @PIT, vs. NJ, @WSH, vs. PIT

Rangers: @TBL, @FLA, @BUF, vs. TOR, vs. PHI, @PHI

There is a surprising lack of games against other bubble teams for these five clubs, but the scheduling makes it perfectly clear why the Rangers are considered to have better chances than Atlanta – that home and home against Philadelphia could very well save their season.

Montreal has a fairly soft schedule the rest of the way and really should rack up enough points to make the playoffs, while the Thrashers are faced with the twin obstacles of tough opponents and not having control of their destiny.

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Let’s lead with the playoff odds of each team still in the Western Conference race, courtesy of Sports Club Stats:

Predators: 99.9

Red Wings: 99.3

Kings: 98.8

Avalanche: 96.4

Flames: 4.8

Blues: 0.5

Ducks: 0.3

That’s a rosy picture if one happens to be a fan of one of the first four teams, and a much less rosy one if our reader has any allegiance to the Calgary Flames. Simplifying those numbers and rounding a little, things basically come down to a 20-point scales, with the Avalanche holding 19 of 20 chances and the Flames having one of 20.

It’s a difficult, but not impossible assignment, even if the Avalanche win some games down the stretch. Matchsticks & Gasoline outlined one plausible playoff scenario earlier today, although there are other possibilities; both teams have difficult schedules down the stretch and putting together a decent run is going to be difficult. The most important game, for both clubs, will be this Friday’s game in Colorado. Simply put, the Flames need a regulation win.

There’s another reason for optimism: Colorado’s record is built on an incredible October run where they went 10-1-2. Since then, they’re a .500 team. They’re also 6-7-1 since the Olympic break, and while the Flames haven’t exactly been lighting it up down the stretch the fact is that this is an obtainable opponent.

It’s unlikely, but hardly impossible.

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Leafs Notebook is a new series here at Hockey or Die; it will run every Friday morning and take a look at the last week from the perspective of the Toronto Maple Leafs. We will be looking at both mainstream and blogger views, and if there is a good site that’s been overlooked, let me know at jonathan dot willis at live dot ca or in the comments section below.

Notebook

The Maple Leafs have gone from having far and away the worst penalty kill in the NHL to actually being pretty good over the last while, at 84.3%. Why has the PK been so effective? [Maple Leafs Hot Stove]
Dion Phaneuf’s transition from disappointing in Calgary to the next great thing in Toronto continues; he’s now a leading candidate for the team captaincy. [Toronto Star]
Some of the youngest Leafs are on a roll, especially forward Nikolai Kulemin, who is establishing himself as not only an NHL scorer but also as a useful fantasy player and a guy who might cost a fair bit to resign. [The Hockey News|Hockey Analysis]
Could Alex Tanguay be a free agent option for the Leafs this summer? Personally, I htink Tanguay has the potential to be one of the best bargains available during free agency, but then again I thought the same thing last year. [Maple Leafs Hot Stove]
After a strong regular season, Nazem Kadri is impressing with his work in the OHL playoffs; thus far he has two goals and five points over two games against Guelph. [Winnipeg Free Press]
Phil Kessel gets compared to a select group of other top forwards, and comes out looking rather well. [Maple Leafs Hot Stove]
Looking back at defenceman Bill Root, who spent parts of three seasons in Toronto. Left unmentioned in the piece was his epic seven goals in 14 games run with the AHL’s St. Catherines Saints. I mean c’mon! [Pension Plan Puppets]
And finally, 12 reasons for the Leafs’ turnaround over the last few games. [Down Goes Brown]

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I just wanted to post a quick note on this blog. Due to some personal circumstances beyond my control, posting is going to be intermittent for the next couple of days, but we should be back to normal sometime next week.

I’d also like to thank all of our readers for visiting this site.

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Senators Notebook is a new series here at Hockey or Die; it will run every Thursday morning and take a look at the last week from the perspective of the Ottawa Senators. We will be looking at both mainstream and blogger views, and if there is a good site that’s been overlooked, let me know at jonathan dot willis at live dot ca or in the comments section below.

The Big Story: Brian Elliott’s Run

The Senators are a team with their fair share of both problems and question marks. In an attempt to make the goaltending secure prior to the season, the team added Pascal Leclaire but unfortunately his injury luck hasn’t been very good and even when healthy he hasn’t played that well. This leaves Brian Elliott as the team’s other option, and at the most pivotal point in the season he’s been superb. With games against Montreal and Philadelphia and a playoff spot potentially at risk, Elliott made 55 saves and recorded back-to-back shutouts. He now has five on the season and a respectable 0.910 SV%, and the team has reason to trust him.

Notebook

The game against Philadelphia produced plenty of news, but perhaps the most interesting point was Anton Volchenkov‘s hit on Simon Gagne, which is right at the edge of legality. There are plenty of takes on it, but I was forced to rethink mine after seeing Dirk Hoag’s frame-by-frame breakdwon of the hit. [On The Forecheck|Puck Daddy|Broad Street Hockey]
A series of notes on the Senators, including an update on Milan Michalek’s injury, and the recent struggles of rookie defenceman Erik Karlsson. [Ottawa Citizen]
“I have absolute confidence that with the players we have and the coaching staff we have, we will obviously make the playoffs.” – Senators owner Eugene Melnyk. [Senators]
Speaking of Melnyk, he has sold off almost all of his interest in BioVail Corp., ending his attempts to regain control of the pharmaceutical company. [National Post]
The Senators recalled forward Zack Smith, who has had a somewhat disappointing campaign with Binghamton and scored two goals in nine games earlier in the season with Ottawa. [Senators]
An 83 year-old Senators jersey worn by Frank Nighbor has been purchased by an American collector and is on its way to New York. [Montreal Gazette]
And finally, if you missed it on Saturday, my take on the Senators’ winning and losing streaks and where their true talent level is. [Hockey or Die]

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I’m no fan of the man currently in charge of NHL discipline; in my opinion Colin Campbell and his wheel of justice are one of the things wrong with the league. Still, I was surprised to see William Houston comment in his Truth and Rumours blog that Campbell may be on his way out:

The speculation among many NHL insiders is that Colin Campbell will be replaced at the end of the season – he will either announce his retirement or take another league job.

Given Campbell’s lamentable track record as the league’s chief law enforcement officer, it is a move that is long overdue.

Houston touches on some of Campbell’s mistakes and inconsistencies while suggesting the Canadian media have given him “a free pass” for years. If the report is accurate, this is good news for the NHL.

On a different tack, Ryan Dixon of The Hockey News comments on an upcoming film about the life of iconic commentator Don Cherry, and I’ll admit that the prospect has me excited. As much as I dislike Cherry’s on-air persona, I’ve enjoyed his books and the glimpses he gives of his life as a player were some of the best material in them. Long before he was a celebrated broadcaster he was a hard-nosed minor league defenceman who eked out a living playing the sport he loved.

Finally, I was asked in the comments section of an earlier article to comment on defenceman Anton Volchenkov and the officiating in last night’s game between the Ottawa Senators and Philadelphia Flyers. I’ve struggled to do so because I’d already read Greg Wyshynski’s take on the incidents, and I’d mostly be reiterating his comments. In short: I didn’t mind the hit on Daniel Carcillo, I thought the goal call looked wrong (though given that my fantasy hockey opponent has Brian Elliott in net I may be biased), and I felt the hit on Simon Gagne was a vicious shot that the Flyers forward didn’t deserve.

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By now, most everyone has heard about the allegations leveled against members of the Washington Capitals organization by Douglas Nagel, a chiropractor who is charged with selling performance enhancing drugs. Nagel has an office next to the Capitals’ practice facility, and the team has acknowledged that some of their players had chiropractic work done at his office. Law enforcement confirms that Nagel had clients who were NHL players.

Before I get into the specifics of this instance, I should acknowledge that I believe both steroids and other substances are used by at least a few NHL players. The use of stimulants is widespread and has been acknowledged by many, and there have been whispers that NHL players have used other substances as well. Former cup-of-coffee NHL tough guy Dave Morissette admitted that he used steroids, and although he declined to name other players he said that the use of steroids is common. Those thoughts aren’t confined to Morissette, as other players have acknowledged they believe it is an issue, although there isn’t a consensus that it’s a problem in the NHL.

The NHL’s rather lax drug testing policy has caught one player, Sean Hill, who was suspended 20 games in the spring of 2007 for violating the league’s performance enhancing substances policy. Even that case should be marked with an asterisk; Hill has maintained his innocence, and in an attempt to clear his name had another test performed by an independent lab and undergone a polygraph test – both of which he passed. More notable than Hill was Bryan Berard, who was caught by the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency rather than the NHL, and thus faced no NHL sanctions for taking a banned substance. Berard admitted his guilt, calling it a “mistake” and vowing never to use such substances again.

Put another way, the allegations in this story are not shocking. NHL players are normal human beings, and thus as prone to the same moral failings as other human beings, and they’re all competitive men trying to carve out a niche in the world’s toughest league. It would not be surprising to find some using performance enhancing drugs; it would be more surprising if none were.

That said, while this is a newsworthy story, and an area which is in my opinion underreported on, it would be wrong to come to any conclusions at this point about either the Capitals as an organization or the players as individuals. No charges have been laid, and aside from statements made by a man facing a prison sentence (statements which contradict earlier statements by the same man) and some circumstantial evidence, there is no reason to think any differently about the team or its players.

That may change if more evidence is revealed. But for the time being, there simply isn’t enough evidence to form any conclusions.

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