Last season the Boston Bruins finished first in the Eastern Conference. In the three years prior to that they’d finished 13th, 13th, and eighth, so their charge up the standings was a little bit surprising.
This year, they’ve dropped all the way back down to eighth and are sitting on the playoff bubble, on pace for a season that almost exactly mirrors their 2007-08 results. It really isn’t a surprising development, and despite the theories offered (generally either the absence of Phil Kessel or a lack of character in the Bruins’ locker room) there’s good reason to believe that this is the Bruins’ true level of ability.
Last season, the Bruins averaged 30.3 shots per game while seeing an average of 30.8 shots per game against; in other words they average half a shot less per game than their opposition. Despite this shot disadvantage, they had a tremendous record. It might be helpful at this point to show the Bruins record when out-shooting, and when out-shot.
- Out-shooting: 21-13-5
- Out-shot: 32-6-5
Now, all sorts of explanations might be offered for why the Bruins won three-quarters of their games when out-shot, but I suspect a reasonable person looks at that record and thinks it is unsustainable.
This season, Boston has averaged 31.0 shots per game, while seeing an average of 30.1 shots per game against. Both numbers are in the ballpark with last year’s figures, although the improvement means that the Bruins now average almost one shot per game more than their opponents. But let’s go back to their record when out-shooting and when out-shot:
- Out-shooting: 15-12-6
- Out-shot: 10-12-4
Those are much more reasonable numbers, and I think it’s fair to argue that despite whatever territorial improvements the Bruins have made they were extremely unlikely to replicate a 0.744 winning percentage when outshot.
In short, it isn’t surprising that the Bruins have regressed. The surprising part was when they finished first in the East last season.
Would be interested to see the team’s shot totals with Marc Savard in the lineup and out of the lineup. I know the team’s record has been substantially better with Savard in the lineup, so I wonder if the shot totals correlate.
Just another young team that overachieved much like the Blues for the second half and likely Blue Jackets did since they’ve had the biggest fall this year. I can’t see how lots of people are blaming it on losing Kessel. Yes, he was their leading goal scorer but he’s streaky and goes through prolonged cold streaks at times and yet they still kept winning. It has more to do with the fact that players like Lucic and Ryder all had great years offensively but haven’t been able to duplicate those results. Of course the injuries to Savard and Bergeron haven’t helped them this year either.
You can analyze all you want. But all that truly happened with the B’s this year was Injuries. Lucic is just starting to show signs of his old self. Savard was hurt all year. Stuart and Ference missed big portions of the season, plus the normal bumps and bruises by other players like Bergeron and now Big Z.
A few off season additions ( a #1 or #2 overall pick helps) and maybe a new coach and you’ll see a different Bruins team next year.
I like julien, but maybe he lost the room? I think they make playoffs, so don’t jump off the band wagon just yet. Next year should be another BIG year for the B’s.
@ Bruins Fan:
How do you explain a team that won 75% of games where they got out-shot? Personally, I say horseshoes and goaltending, but maybe that’s just me.
All the post-lockout data would seem to suggest the Bruins are a bubble team that overachieved last year; I’m open to different ideas but that’s how I read it.
There’s always one or two teams like this that overachieve and get into the playoffs then expectations are raised leading to massive disappointment the next year and a massive unneeded roster overhaul.
Look at the Habs a couple years ago then look at the team now. Kaboom.
A BRUIN fan for 58 years and I will never give up, just like the team never give up. They have had a lot of injuries and have not gotten the call’ s from the reff’s that are there, like the hit on Savard the other day.
They will be ok this year and may go a few rounds in the play off’s, but next year will offer a bigger team maybe a super star, they have very good this year for all that has happen to them, or they have over come.
I like the coach, and the GM and all the guy’s coming back to help out is great, and think they should keep up the good work.
Any one can say this wont work or that wont work, but a true fan will stand by there team, always, no matter what.