Inspired by Edmonton Oilers President Kevin Lowe’s comment that a real win for his organization at this summer’s entry draft would entail getting five solid NHL’ers with their 10 draft picks, I decided to see how many times between 1980 and 2004 NHL teams managed to hit the magical 50.0% plateau.
Knowing what a crapshoot the NHL Entry Draft is, I figured it would be a fairly rare occurrence. What follows are the team-by-team success rates over those 25 years. I’ve stretched the definition of “solid NHL’er” as far as I dare, including people like Gordie Dwyer and giving younger players like Mark Mancari the benefit of the doubt.
|Team||No. of Drafts||50%+ Drafts||Last 50% Draft|
I ended up with a 4.1 success rate using this definition of success – in other words, the typical NHL team can expect to convert 50.0% of its draft picks into real life players about four times a century.
I’m all for high expectations from NHL scouts, but while it’s fine to hope for a 50.0% success rate, I certainly wouldn’t state it publicly because it’s an incredibly difficult bar to measure up to.