The race for first overall in this summer’s draft has been neck and neck all season. Both Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin have had exceptional years, and scouting services are divided on which of the two is the better pick. Seguin is supposedly the better two-way player, but Hall the more dynamic scorer. Hall’s been performing at a high level for a longer time, but Seguin plays for a worse team and is slightly younger. Hall has a reputation for immaturity, but it was Seguin who was cut from the World Junior team.
It’s so close that I have no idea which player I would select if I were the general manager with the first overall pick.
With so little gap between the two players, I thought breaking down their scoring by situation might help a little bit, so that’s what I’ll do today, comparing the two on the power play, at even-strength, short handed, and with the net empty.
Hall Power Play Scoring: 57GP – 14G – 30A – 44PTS (0.772 PTSGM)
Seguin Power Play Scoring: 61GP – 13G – 30A – 43PTS (0.705 PTS/GM)
As expected, Hall has a slight edge here, but not enough to say that he’s seen his numbers unfairly pushed past Seguin thanks to the strength of his team. For the teams that get either of these players, there’s no need to worry that they’ve been putting up a disproportionate number of his points with the man advantage.
Hall Short Handed Scoring: 57GP – 4G – 1A – 5PTS
Seguin Short Handed Scoring: 61GP – 0G – 0A – 0PTS
This stat caught my eye. Seguin’s the player who gets credit for exceptional two-way play, but it is Hall who has a bunch of short-handed goals to his credit, while Seguin has zeroes across the board. Any number of explanations are possible; perhaps Hall is just a more aggressive penalty-killer, or he gets more ice-time in those situations, but it’s certainly an item in his favour.
Hall Empty Net Scoring: 57GP – 3G – 0A – 3PTS
Seguin Empty Net Scoring: 61GP – 1G – 1A – 2PTS
There isn’t much to differentiate the two here.
Hall Even Strength Scoring: 57GP – 19G – 35A – 54PTS (0.947 PTS/GM)
Seguin Even Strength Scoring: 61GP – 34G – 27A – 61PTS (1.00 PTS/GM)
This was the interesting column for me; Seguin has nearly twice as many even-strength goals as Hall. For all the talk of Hall being a better goal-scorer than Seguin, in three OHL seasons he’s never managed 48 goals in a year, and his even-strength goal scoring has dropped from 35 to 26 and finally to 19 this season. The point totals are very close overall, however.
Unfortunately, there’s nothing definitive here; statistically these two players remain very, very close.