The race for first overall in this summer’s draft has been neck and neck all season. Both Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin have had exceptional years, and scouting services are divided on which of the two is the better pick. Seguin is supposedly the better two-way player, but Hall the more dynamic scorer. Hall’s been performing at a high level for a longer time, but Seguin plays for a worse team and is slightly younger. Hall has a reputation for immaturity, but it was Seguin who was cut from the World Junior team.

It’s so close that I have no idea which player I would select if I were the general manager with the first overall pick.

With so little gap between the two players, I thought breaking down their scoring by situation might help a little bit, so that’s what I’ll do today, comparing the two on the power play, at even-strength, short handed, and with the net empty.

Hall Power Play Scoring: 57GP – 14G – 30A – 44PTS (0.772 PTSGM)
Seguin Power Play Scoring: 61GP – 13G – 30A – 43PTS (0.705 PTS/GM)

As expected, Hall has a slight edge here, but not enough to say that he’s seen his numbers unfairly pushed past Seguin thanks to the strength of his team. For the teams that get either of these players, there’s no need to worry that they’ve been putting up a disproportionate number of his points with the man advantage.

Hall Short Handed Scoring: 57GP – 4G – 1A – 5PTS
Seguin Short Handed Scoring: 61GP – 0G – 0A – 0PTS

This stat caught my eye. Seguin’s the player who gets credit for exceptional two-way play, but it is Hall who has a bunch of short-handed goals to his credit, while Seguin has zeroes across the board. Any number of explanations are possible; perhaps Hall is just a more aggressive penalty-killer, or he gets more ice-time in those situations, but it’s certainly an item in his favour.

Hall Empty Net Scoring: 57GP – 3G – 0A – 3PTS
Seguin Empty Net Scoring: 61GP – 1G – 1A – 2PTS

There isn’t much to differentiate the two here.

Hall Even Strength Scoring: 57GP – 19G – 35A – 54PTS (0.947 PTS/GM)
Seguin Even Strength Scoring: 61GP – 34G – 27A – 61PTS (1.00 PTS/GM)

This was the interesting column for me; Seguin has nearly twice as many even-strength goals as Hall. For all the talk of Hall being a better goal-scorer than Seguin, in three OHL seasons he’s never managed 48 goals in a year, and his even-strength goal scoring has dropped from 35 to 26 and finally to 19 this season. The point totals are very close overall, however.

Unfortunately, there’s nothing definitive here; statistically these two players remain very, very close.

Comments (16)

  1. Well this seems interesting if it were me I’d pick Seguin. The stats do back up that assumption but either way the Oilers and Bruins (thanks to Toronto) can’t lose. But one must remember all the hype surrounding Taverez last year while Duchene was always mentioned in the back ground. And this year it’s Duchene being the better player and helping his team into the post season. Meanwhile Taverez has shown flashes a brilliance and maybe will be like Stamkos before him and explode next year. But has so far been a bit of a flop for the Isles.

    So the Oilers should think long and hard about this. As they need to bring in someone that can compliment the top six the Oilers already have or are developing into top six forwards. Hemesky, Gagne, Penner, Eberle and Svensson. Likely the younger guys will need time but that is an impressive top six that they are bringing together. While it doesn’t mean they’ll explode next year and be like Colorado, Phoenix and L.A. they can start moving in the right direction.

  2. So who do you pick after going through your analysis?

  3. That’s a pretty big disparity between ES goals between the two. I wonder what their SH% looks like. Especially when you consider the fact that Seguin’s goal total is more than double that of last year. I’d be far more comfortable selecting the guy who’s been doing it consistantly.

    Between that, and all the scouts saying Hall is the better goal scorer, there’s a good chance Seguin is just getting some extra bounces this year. Not to say he’s not a hell of a prospect.

  4. I personally suspect that Hall is being handicapped in a head-to-head comparison like this by virtue of being on a stronger team.

    Anecdotal evidence from Windsor fans suggests that their head coach tends toward rolling 4 lines during regular season games, but then preferentially goes with his top two lines in the playoffs. As one might expect if this were true, Hall’s PPG in his 16/17 year old season jumped from 1.42 in the regular season to 1.8 in the playoffs. If Hall shows another jump in playoff PPG this year it might lend support to this hypothesis.

    In any circumstance I think the Memorial cup playoffs should be helpful in looking at both players should their teams go deep.

  5. SumOil: Probably Hall. But I’m not sold either way at this point.

  6. Its hard to choose because ever since hall entered the league with windsor hes been surrounded by great talent there, where as seguin has not, Like the spitfires dont have to rely on hall as much as the whalers have to rely on seguin because of the telent difference , a guy that i would look at closely in this years draft would be jeff skinner of the rangers, hes going to be a steal, but as far as first overall, i’d go with seguin becasue i like what hes done with the telent aeround him and anyone coming from mike veluchis teams are going to be solid

  7. Hey Jonathan, just wondering if you took these stats from reading my blog or if you did the leg work yourself? Doesn’t matter either way, but I just found it odd that a day or 2 after I made the same type of post you did the same thing :) As far as I’m concerned we’d be lucky to get either player.

  8. Never knew copy and paste was in your repertoire. Shame on you Willis.

  9. The link to BBO’s piece is here: http://bryanbryoil.blogspot.com/2010/03/hall-vs-seguin-part-7-complete-regular.html

    As for the question, I did the legwork myself; I haven’t been by BBO’s blog in a fair bit. That’s of course for you to believe or not, but a) the timing was a result of the OHL season ending and b) you’ll notice our numbers don’t exactly match up and I’ve included empty net assists, which isn’t available from BBO’s stuff.

    I recommend checking out his piece; it has a lot of details that I never went into. But given the data I think it’s pretty clear that I wasn’t copying, and given that I have a long track record of linking back to data I use from elsewhere I don’t see why anyone would assume bad faith, even if the data was the same (which I note again, it isn’t).

  10. Fair enough Jonathan, I just figured that if you did take it that maybe you forgot to make mention of it. It would’ve saved you a lot of time if you did check it out first! LOL! Anyhow thanks for the response and I see no need to question your character and I will just chalk it up to coincidence. Cheers, Bryan

  11. Bryan: I’m going to have to stop by your site more often; it would have saved a ton of time if I’d known you had all that data put together already.

    That’s really good stuff you have there.

  12. Thanks Jonathan, I usually save the numbers crunching for stuff that I’m really interested in, in this case it’s the Oilers chance of landing a true superstar via the draft, a true face of the franchise. Now watch them draft Fowler :(

  13. anyone of these players would be a great addition to edmonton’s up and comming team. so as an oilers fan i will be happy with either pick. maybe they will go with cam fowler instead since there so bad defensively. just a thought. give me some feedback

  14. oilers fan-I have heard that Fowler is at their level by some of teh scouting agencies, however I haven’t seen it. He doesn’t have the offensive skills of a Doughty (not even close IMO) so at best he maybe a Bouwmeester type IMO. Hall and Seguin are both likely to be franchise like forwards. If we are doing this rebuild right we try to ice a horrible team next season and try to land Larsson as the cornerstone to our defense, if not Couturier would be one hell of a consolation prize.

  15. Social comments and analytics for this post…

    This post was mentioned on Reddit by Reveillark: I think the Oilers will take Hall so that he and Eberle can rip it up together like they did in the WJC. Quite excited that my B’s will still have an elite prospect like Seguin to take at 2nd though….

  16. A big reason why Hall has more short-handed goals than Seguin is because when Hall is on the PK, he spends the majority of his time in the neutral zone waiting for a pass. The Spits don’t show any sort of respect for the bottom teams in the OHL, and that’s when Hall gets his PK time. They have him circle the neutral zone, wait for a turnover and instead of clearing the puck out of the zone and changing lines, they pass it to Hall for a scoring chance.

    Sometimes, it causes the opposing team to alter their PP to cover Hall (which isn’t a bad strategy). Instead of setting up down low, the PP team has to back up a bit, and their point man has to play closer to the blueline. With a team as dominant as the Spits have been the past two years, you can get away with that when facing the Sarnias and Owen Sounds. They usually don’t try it against the more potent offensive teams.

    The downside is that it’s disrespectful of the cellar-dwelling team, and they don’t forget that. The Spits’ BS this year is a big reason why Sarnia kicked the living crap out of them in the last game of the season.

    Anyone who has seen the two players play live more than once would take Seguin. I have several Spits fan friends, and they would all take Seguin over Hall.

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