Yesterday, we considered five teams that were collecting significantly more points from winning (or even just playing in) a lot of overtime games. Since the number of three-point games a team plays varies significantly from year to year, and their record in those contests varies significantly as well, a team getting a lot of points in this manner might be overachieving.
There’s another implication to that argument, however: teams who don’t play a lot of overtime games miss out on extra points, and might be expected to be significantly better than their record. The following list focuses on five of those teams.
1. Philadelphia Flyers
- OT/SO Record: 5-4
- Points Under Average: 10
- Standings Change: 6th to 3rd
The Flyers were considered underachievers early in the year, and despite a great goal differential fired coach John Stevens to try and turn things around, replacing him with Peter Laviolette. After a long stretch of identical results, the Flyers have started picking up points and now sit sixth in the East. The good news is that they’re probably even better than that.
2. Vancouver Canucks
- OT/SO Record: 6-3
- Points Under Average: 9
- Standings Change: 3rd to 1st
Is a lack of overtime games all that stands between the Canucks and the Western Conference crown? Frequently ignored when discussing the best teams in the West, both their goal differential and straight win-loss record have them neck-and-neck-and-neck with Chicago and San Jose.
3. New York Rangers
- OT/SO Record: 3-9
- Points Under Average: 9
- Standings Change: 9th to 5th
Last year, the Rangers collected 33 points after regulation, more than any other team in the league. This year, they have only 15, dropping from the top to very close to the bottom of the NHL. As it stands, they’re life and death to make the playoffs and the Bettman point is a big reason why.
4. Colorado Avalanche
- OT/SO Record: 6-6
- Points Under Average: 6
- Standings Change: 6th to 3rd
I’ve been skeptical about the Avalanche all season; they’ve relied on incredible goaltending and a bunch of high percentage shooters to counter for the fact that they’re outshot the vast majority of the time. That said, they haven’t gotten any help from the NHL points system and remain one of the league’s most remarkable stories this season.
5. Calgary Flames
- OT/SO Record: 5-9
- Points Under Average: 5
- Standings Change: 9th to 7th
The three point game hasn’t had a huge impact on Calgary’s season, but given where they are in the standings it could turn out to be the difference between making the playoffs and missing the playoffs.
As soon as I read this title of this article and realized that the teams listed would have been negatively impacted by something, I knew the flames would be up there. They seem so inept this year, if they just did a few things differently, and they played liked they care, they would EASILY be in the playoffs. Instead it looks like we’ll be missing them for the first time since 02-03.
Interesting… but to say that the Canucks lack of OT/SO games is what separates them from San Jose seems a little off. I’d say they’re pretty fortunate to be 6-3 in OT/SO and SJ has been unlucky to be 7-10 in OT/SO.
The fact that San Jose is 36-16 (.692) in regulation vs Vancouver’s 37-24 (.607) is a better indication of true strength.
To say that if the Canucks had turned more of their regulation losses into OT losses then they’d be #1 is kinda like saying that if the Canucks had been better then they’d have more points.
Cam: That’s why I asked the question rather than making the statement. I agree that S.J. is ahead of Vancouver, but I think that the Canucks are a lot closer to the top than most people give them credit for.
I agree with Cam that looking at the regulation record is more beneficial than assuming lots of OT points = worse than you think and few OT points = better than you think. After all, teams might have more OT games if they blow more leads but that sure as heck wouldn’t make them “luckier.”
Got me on a technicality there with the question vs statement trickery… damn you Willis.
I agree that I think Vancouver is better than their record and San Jose will likely choke in the playoffs so my point was rather pointless.
The one the I find interesting is that Pittsburgh is 7-1 in the shootouts… take that out of their record and their win% drops from .630 to .563… much closer to say Philly, who’d be .540 without their 3-3 shootout record.
Yes, the Canucks seem to be constantly over looked for some odd reason. Their in third place and it’s not like they are their solely because of the fact they are a division leader. I think they deserve a lot more respect then they have gotten this year especially when you consider they’ve been missing their two best d man for a last while. Once they get Bieska and Mitchel back they should be a real force come playoff time.
Are you really calculating “Bettman Points” here? In my view a Bettman Point is:
1. in the case of an OT win, the losing team receiving a point even though they lost, as under pre-Bettman rules an OT loss resulted in zero points. This losing team has received a “Bettman Point”.
2. in the case of a SO win, the winning team receives a “Bettman Point” as the pre-Bettman rules would not have granted an additional point for what would otherwise be a tie.
That’s how I view the Bettman Points, someone always gets one, but it depends on context who it is.
Fair point Smytty.
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