On the morning of January 14, the Ottawa Senators sat tied for eighth in the Eastern Conference, one point back of seventh-place Philadelphia. Montreal and the Islanders were tied with them, and three other teams were within four points. They were also only three points back of fifth-place Boston, meaning that nine teams on the playoff bubble were separated by only seven points. The possibility of finishing in the middle of the conference was real, as was the possibility of slipping down into a lottery pick position at the NHL draft.
The Senators played against the Rangers that night, winning 2-0. They won their next game too. And the game after that. And the game after that. All told, the Senators would win their next 11 games, and 14 of 16 prior to the Olympic break. By the time the NHL stopped on Valentine’s Day, the Senators were tied for third in the East, sitting on top of their division, and had a 13-point cushion between themselves and the ninth spot.
They’ve won one of eight games since the NHL resumed play, and collected three of a possible 16 points. With 11 games to play, their cushion has sunk to eight points; Buffalo now has a five point lead for the division crown and two games in hand to go with it. What happened?
Put plainly, the Senators’ winning streak was built on a percentage bubble. During their 14-game run, they were outshot on average by a 31-28 margin, but they scored 19 goals more than their opponents. The reason for the disparity was an incredibly high (11.2%) shooting percentage (last year’s leaders, the Penguins, managed only 10.9%) along with an unbeatably good (0.935) team save percentage (last year’s leaders, the Bruins, managed only 0.925). There was no reason to believe that the Senators could continue to post league-leading numbers in both offensive efficiency and goaltending given their roster, and based on their shooting numbers and assuming average goaltending they were in reality a bubble team in the East.
The good news for Senators fans is that the losing streak is also percentage-fueled. The Senators have actually held a 29-27 shot advantage on their opposition during their recent eight game run, but haven’t been able to convert those shooting numbers to wins because the percentages have abruptly reversed. Instead of an 11.2 shooting percentage, their shooters have dropped to 5.2% (which would have been second-worst in the league last year). We can be fairly confident that their shooters are somewhere near the league average and both over- and under-performed, since the ridiculous alternative is that the momentum lost over the Olympic break made them half as good. It’s a similar story in net, where their goaltending has dropped from the Hasek-in-his-prime 0.935 to a Toskala-esque 0.869 – meaning that opposition shooters have been twice as likely to score on any shot they take in the post-Olympic break. Brian Elliott isn’t a phenom by any stretch, but both his minor-league numbers and NHL numbers over the past few years point to a capable goalie whose true ability is somewhere between those two extremes.
The Senators are not (despite owner Eugene Melnyk’s statement) an “elite” team. Neither are they a lottery team. They’re one of a half-dozen teams on the Eastern Conference bubble, teams that could look pretty good or pretty bad with a little bit of luck in either direction. The Senators have had both good and bad fortune, but overall they’re right about where they deserve to be.
It should be noted also that the one Sens win since the Olympics came against Edmonton, which is technically only worth a point and a half.
Honestly I think they are worse then their numbers show, I think that a best they are like the Leafs of the past 4 years not quite good enough for the playoffs but to good for the good picks. If they where smart and the have proven not to be (Kovalec honestly worst signing ever) They would start a rebuild, IF they make the playoffs they will not go far and they will be back next year thinking they are only 1 player away from a contending team when in reality there D-core is terrible. Just saying.
Rsmotors, I see exactly what your saying, and there is nothing worse. The rangers have been the definition of that kind of team for a while now
Worst signing ever? Your kidding right there Rsmotors? Kovalev has at least helped the team win and has made his line mates. (Fisher is having a career year with Kovalev) Those honors have to go to Islanders and Rangers and many of their bone head signings. And to say they need to blow things up when most of the so called experts had them pegged for 9-12 in the conference how well do you think Melynk will take that if Murray went up and told him he planned to do that. You’d be fired so fast it wouldn’t be funny. And it’s not like the team doesn’t have the young pieces coming a long. Lee is still developing, Karlsson has looked amazing for most of the season, And Cowen and Wieroch are coming along behind them. They can make it out of the first round since they can beat out Buffalo or New Jersey. And they can likely hang with but lose to the Caps or Pens. Which from a fans perspective would be pretty damn good and I know most Toronto fans would love to be even in the playoffs let alone winning a game or two in them.
Devon if you think the senators are going to win the first round over the Devils or Sabres than you are going to get a reality check. Kovalev is a joke only plays when he feels like it usually this time of year he will pull a disappearing act if tkis senators team makes the playoffs they will be out in 4-5 games and most Toronto fans remember Patrick Lalime when they think of the Sens and how you guys NEVER EVER beat them in the playoffs compete with the Caps and Pens ha ha ha what a pathetic disillusional person you are Alfies still looking for that Stanley Cup he guaranteed 5 years ago
rsmotors the reality is the sens are a decent goaltender away from going deep in the playoffs, like they always have been. Did you notice how well there goaltending was in there 10 game winning streak and how poor it is now? Also the sens only signed Kovalev for 2 years to try to replace heatley, so it wasn’t a terrible deal (5M for 20-30 goals isn’t too bad is it?). As for their terrible defence, Volchenkov and Phillips aren’t too bad and neither is the rest of their defence if they could get some decent goaltending it wouldn’t be an issue, the sens are in a slump now but they can get through it. And as for the Sabres and Devils comment, Miller has been poorly lately and Brodeur played terribly during the olympics and is now aging, those two goalies mean everything to their teams.
Poor Sens fans and your delusional thoughts of playoff success. The Sens are not a decent goaltender away from a deep playoff run. Their defense can have some shining moments but for the most part is below par. Their forward core is pretty shallow as well. Once you get past the first two lines it thins out quite a bit. They have an inability to score, especially on the powerplay. They are currently tied with the Leafs for the 2nd worst PP % with 15.2% (need I say more?). Only 2 players have reached 20 goals and 1 has broken the 50 point mark. Overall this team has averaged 2.64 goals per game and allowed 2.89 goals against. Doesn’t look good for a team that is “supposed” to be a playoff contender. I expect nothing more then a quick splash in the first round and then being promptly booted out in 5-6 games. Although Sens fans should be used to that already considering that the Leafs have personally done it to them 4 times in the last decade. Hope all the Sens fans have fun this spring wondering what could have been if Danny was still around.