VANCOUVER, CANADA - APRIL 23:  Henrik Sedin #33 of the Vancouver Canucks looks on from the bench in Game Five of the Western Conference Quarterfinals in their game against the Los Angeles Kings during the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs at General Motors Place on April 22, 2010 in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.  Vancouver won 7-2. Photo by Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)

This past season, 25 NHL forwards recorded more than 70 points.  I thought it might be interesting to see how those players originally entered the NHL, and how many of them were drafted by the team they’re with now.


Original Draft Position

First Overall: 6/25 (24%)

Top-10 Pick: 15/25 (60%)

First Round: 20/25 (80%)

Second Round: 2/25 (8%)

Top 100 picks: 23/25 (92%)

Bottom 100 picks: 1/25 (4%)

Undrafted: 1/25 (4%)


How Acquired


Draft: 19/25 (76%)

Trade: 4/25 (16%)

Free Agency: 2/25 (8%)


Those are remarkable numbers, and they do a good job of showing us how good NHL scouts as a group are at identifying the top talent at forward – of the top-25 scorers, only one (Daniel Alfredsson) came outside of the first 100 picks in the NHL Draft, and only one was undrafted altogether (Martin St. Louis).


Those numbers also show that most top scorers come to the teams they’re on now through the draft.  Sometimes they’re available via free agency or trade, but in more than three-quarters of cases the best scorers in the league are still on the first team that selected them.



Comments (4)

  1. And thats why giving up 2 1st rd picks is retarded, regardless if its for a 22 yr old soft goal scorer or a 34 yr hard as nails defenceman. Both the Leafs and the Flyers are hamstung now, although the Leafs do have more cap space than the Flyers.

  2. **hamstrung** oops

  3. marshalle- good point, but it’s important to note that this post doesn’t mean 80% of first round picks become 70 pts players… only that 80% of 70 pts players came from the first round (this year).

    I can’t remember where but some efforts have been made before at evaluating the value of first round picks (and later rounds as well, thought after the second it was close to 0), and I recall that late first rounders (20 and later) had very little expected value at the NHL level.

    Not to defend Burke or Holmgren’s moves – I thought both were desperation/PR-motivated, fairly bad trades (especially in Burke’s case).

  4. As a Flyer fan I think the Pronger trade is much worse. Now if they manage the impossible and win the Cup i will stop bitchin.

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