Cam Charron

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"The Kreider man... the Kreider man can!"

For the first few weeks of any given NHL season, the starting routine is simple. Peruse the NHL media to find a player who is being unfairly criticized, write a brief 700 words or so about how his percentages are unsustainably low, wait a few weeks for everything to turn around, and then when everybody has settled down about a particular topic, the percentages regress and all is right with the world.

Then we have Chris Kreider, a player who has turned so many heads, he has started out with a minus-two rating and a 946 PDO, yet no critics seem to exist. He just burst onto the scene from Boston College (or was that Boston University? They’re all the same place) to join the New York Rangers for the playoff run, and what has followed is something “remarkable” according to Red Fisher:

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For two months, the Bruins looked like an unbeatable juggernaut as well

Inspiration: ‘Juggernaut‘ by Ellen Etchingham

Check out these two paragraphs from the AP post-gamer of Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals:

Indeed, Los Angeles is on the brink of its second Stanley Cup final after leaping to a 3-0 lead over reeling Phoenix in the Western Conference finals. The eighth-seeded Kings are on an unbelievable 11-1 streak with eight consecutive wins in the post-season, outscoring their opponents 37-17 and winning the first three games in each of their first three series.

The Kings have almost grown leery of talking about their winning streak, a bit like the teammates of a pitcher throwing a no-hitter. Yet concrete accomplishment is just one win away: With a victory in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon, the Kings finally would have another banner to hang next to the single division title and conference title banners forlornly decorating a small section of a wall at Staples Center.

The Los Angeles Kings aren’t the first team to have been crowned presumptive champions this season. Dominant runs by the Boston Bruins and the Pittsburgh Penguins both mid-season allowed the hockey media and blogosphere to wax on a few percentage-sustained runs that had the teams at 14-0-1 and 12-0-1, respectively, collectively blowing out their opponents most nights.

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HAPPENS

Everybody and their dog knows by now that the New York Rangers were the fourth best team in the NHL in shot-blocking, their prowess widely discussed in the first two games of their series against the New Jersey Devils.

It’s become the series of shot blocking. The CBC crew have theorized that certain Devils forwards have become scared of releasing the puck for fear of reprisal. Ilya Kovalchuk had 11 attempts in Game 1 and just 5 in Game 2. Zach Parise had 7 and 1. The Devils as a whole have fired 121 pucks at Henrik Lundqvist, compared to just 95 for the Rangers.

So “shot blocking” may be overblown. The Rangers have blocked 20 more attempts than the Devils, for sure, but the Devils are leading in “unblocked shot attempts” 79 to 73 through the first two games and 70-50 at even strength.

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Henrik Lundqvist is definitely beatable.

Losses by conference finalists in the first four rounds: Los Angeles – 1, Phoenix – 3, New Jersey – 4, New York – 6. They’ve staved off elimination on three occasions, and the Devils are the only other team thus far to face it.

Basically, back from the dead. The goalie—Lundqvist— is actually the lowest ranked in even strength save percentage among final four goaltenders, a .946 going into round four. (Last night’s game not taken into consideration, so clicking that link may yield different results than what I’m working with). Of course he wasn’t too far behind Mike Smith’s top-ranked .949, but there you go. No goalie has pulled away from the pack these playoffs in the manner that Tim Thomas did last year ~yet~ but there’s still time.

So what’s the book on Lundqvist? How has this Hart Trophy, Ted Lindsay and Vezina Trophy-nominated goaltender allow 25 goals in 14 games? Particularly since Lundqvist plays an unorthodox style that keeps him deep in his net and more upright.

I theorized that playing deeper in his net exposed Lundqvist to allowing longer shots. Kyle Turris’ overtime winner in Game Four of Round One, while a good shot, is probably one that Lundqvist should have had. Many goalies face a shot like that at the top of the blue paint, at least.

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Hockey.

Part of the problem with outsider sports analysis is that there’s no way for outsiders to be conclusively proved “right” or “wrong” in regards to a certain player or team. Last season, for instance, Boston was my pre-season pick to win the Stanley Cup, but it didn’t come without its caveats: I had also picked Tuukka Rask to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.

Can I consider myself “right” even when the result was fine, considering when I showed my work, I was completely wrong? Tim Thomas, not Rask, was the goalie who took Boston to the Finals in the playoffs after the two goalies more or less split regular season starts.

Then again, how can I also be “wrong”? Rask didn’t have a chance as a starter. There is a universe that exists in which Tuukka Rask played for the Bruins all through last season’s playoffs. Maybe he did win the Conn Smythe with a save percentage of .940 or higher. Maybe the Bruins did win the Cup.

I’m looking ahead to Game 7 of the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals series. A little over a month ago, the only way this series was a conceptual possibility was as a first-round matchup. The numbers were stacked against Washington ever since Dale Hunter replaced Bruce Boudreau. The measure I use for team quality, Fenwick Tied, a unblocked shot-differential rate, lists Washington at a 55.4% puck possession team under Bruce Boudreau and just 47.4% under Dale Hunter.

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Those gold jerseys are beautiful, I care what no-one says.

When the clock ran out on the Predators on Monday night, the clock also may have run out on Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, cornerstones of the franchise, as Nashvillains.

Everything lined up for the Predators this season: Weber and Suter, headed to free agency, convinced management to line them up with a winning roster and prove to them they were committed to the task, or so the story goes.

Alexander Radulov and Andrei Kostitsyn highlighted the late season pickups for Nashville. They spent a first round pick (a first round pick!) on Paul Gaustad, a defensive centreman that represents a pretty menial spot on a roster for such a short period of time. Also, Hal Gill, who can, um, skate upright.

Point being, everything fell together for Nashville this season. I’ve made my thoughts clear on the Pekka Rinne contract, and while I’m not convinced that he was the problem in the series against the Phoenix Coyotes, I’m also not convinced that any goaltender is worth enough money to throw at. Even historically good goaltenders have rough seasons every three years it seems (see: Tim Thomas, 2009-10). If you were going to gamble on two of the “big three”, one of them ought not to have been Rinne.

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I don’t even know how many times I’ve heard it this postseason: “The Capitals’ record with Ovechkin playing more than 20 minutes is X and Y, and the Caps record with him under 20 is Z and W.”

As it happens, yes, Washington are just 1-4 as a team when Ovechkin plays more than 20 minutes, and 5-1 when he’s held to less than that. Additionally, the one loss that the Caps have had when Dale Hunter has kept Ovechkin below 20 came when he got 17:34 in Game 1 of their series against the Boston Bruins, which is the sixth most ice-time Ovechkin has got.

Doesn’t make much sense that your team does worse the more one of your best players plays, but the prevailing wisdom seems to be that Hunter doesn’t trust Ovechkin too much in defensive situations:

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