“Thoughts on Thoughts” is a feature that looks at Elliotte Friedman’s terrific weekly post “30 Thoughts.” Justin Bourne selects his 10 favourite tidbits, and elaborates.
Last edition: Jamie Benn and “The Unsigned Three”
Friedman’s column, January 29th: P.K. Subban eyes bigger payday
Elliotte’s opening this week was on P.K. Subban’s new contract, and what it means for him and the Habs going forward. My initial reaction to the Subban numbers was semi-shock. As in, “I need to figure out what I’m missing here, because he’s obviously worth more than that,” and it was Friedman’s piece that has taken me to where I feel like I have a comfortable grasp of the situation.
How I see it:
In a nutshell, the Canadiens and Subban are going to be negotiating a new, sizable contract during this calendar year. His “two year deal” essentially means that he doesn’t make a (comparative) ton over the next three-months-or-so of the 2013 NHL season (you don’t get paid in playoffs), then suddenly it’s the 2013-14 season and you have a stud d-man in the final year of his RFA deal that you should negotiate with before the year is up. It’s basically eight or nine months before these two sides will be back at the table talking nickels.
So, in the short-term, The Canadiens have no salary cap problems because Subban isn’t playing for a ton. The second year of the deal is for $3.75M, so if the Canadiens want to qualify him, they have to at least start there. And assuming he’s played at-or-near expectations without sustaining a major injury, they’re going to lock him up for a long time, likely into multiple unrestricted free agency years. Subban could be (as Friedman puts it) the second highest-paid player on the team before we know it.
So yes, he’s underpaid right now. But he doesn’t miss a year of salary, doesn’t kill the Canadiens, doesn’t form a rift with the organization….it’s just a really smart deal all around. I’m impressed.
3. Many of you have asked about offer sheets. As one GM (not one quoted elsewhere in this blog) said: “If Nashville is going to match that offer to Shea Weber, what the [bleep's] the point of doing one?” He added that some of the vulnerable teams are getting increased revenue sharing under a new CBA, giving them even more incentive to match — with your money.
Maybe I’m missing something here, after the “with your money” add on, but isn’t the idea with an offer sheet, especially to the Habs in their current situation, that “we either get a really good player for our picks, or we put their team in salary cap hell?” Weakening your opponent can be as good as getting better. I understand now (thanks to Patrick Burke last week) that effing over a fellow GM can result in repercussions down the road, but still, to act like there would be no benefit to slapping a team like Montreal with an offer sheet seems disingenuous to me. I’m still learning the front office side though, so let me know what I’m missing here if you like. Read the rest of this entry »