Archive for the ‘Edmonton Oilers’ Category

There’s always been something that bugged me about hockey.

No, it isn’t the appropriate split of hockey-related revenue between the NHL and NHLPA, it’s something far more general and less specific to the actual problems facing the National Hockey League.

It’s the assist. I never really “got” the assist. Sure, I’ve used assists, and by proxy, points, as a marker for a hockey player’s offensive talent, but it seems rather simplistic and arbitrary. Why “two” assists? At what point did the hockey establishment decide that “two” passes before a goal was a perfectly acceptable way of conveying participation in the play?

A lot of television analysts, a lot of whom would probably shy away from the use of modern analytical tools such as Corsi or TOIQualComp, use numbers quite often in their assessment of players. It was a big thing this week when Taylor Hall got his contract extension, analysts were using Jordan Eberle’s point totals to argue that he ought to get a similar deal.

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The Edmonton Oilers are a franchise keen on keeping traditions in tact no matter how recent. You’ll note that each of the last first overall picks the franchise has had — Taylor Hall and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, for those of you with short memories — have missed significant portions of time due to injury in their brief careers.

Enter Nail Yakupov.
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From The Man himself comes news out of Edmonton today:

That takes Taylor Hall until the year 2020, when he’ll become a an unrestricted free agent. I assume by then he’ll be working a hovercar into his next deal.

The cap hit is fairly difficult to judge right now based on a couple factors: Read the rest of this entry »

I want to step away from lockout or contract talk and simply discuss a concept in hockey I like.

When analyzing teams throughout the season, I often like to look at “goal differential” rather than points pace. I think the quality of a team is reflected in how many goals they score, and how many they give up. Over a large span of games, the amount of goals and goals given up can predict how many wins a team will earn.

This is mostly a baseball concept, but it has been applied to other sports. Primarily basketball, but the MLB.com standings page will allow you to look at predicted wins and losses based on the formula, which is as follows:

In baseball, they score runs. In hockey, you score goals (unless you’re Scott Gomez. Hey ho!). Using the same formula, let’s look at, say, the Anaheim Ducks over the last three seasons. They’ve won 128 out of 246 games, for a winning percentage of .520. They’ve doing this scoring 722 goals including shootout wins, and allowing 724 including shootout losses.

722 ^ 2 / ( ( 722 ^ 2 ) + ( 724 ^ 2 ) ) = .499

So it isn’t too far off. A winning percentage of .499 would equal roughly 123 wins, which is just five below the predicted total.

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