Archive for the ‘Thoughts’ Category

We expected something better than before

Posted by Jake Goldsbie under Opinion, Thoughts, Well That Sucked on May 15, 2013

Ugh

Ugh

Yesterday was a weird day.

The gamut of emotions that Leafs fans have been run through in the last seven days has been unlike anything I have ever experienced as a sports fan. You all know what happened by now, you don’t need a recap. Hell, I don’t need a recap. Ever. Walking into the office yesterday, seeing five screens all replaying the worst heartache I have ever experienced in sports, I mean…how do you even begin to justify that within your own sphere of reference.

The Toronto Maple Leafs did the unthinkable this year and I’m not referring to pushing the Boston Bruins to seven games. I’m referring to the fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs made the goddamn playoffs and there is nothing any heartbreaking loss can do to change that fact. Predictions ran rampant before the truncated 2013 season that the Leafs would finish anywhere from 9th to 15th in the Eastern Conference. The notion of a playoff birth was silly and justifiably so. When I said that the Leafs would finish seventh (I think) in our pre-season prediction podcast, I ridiculed my own choice. It was a homer pick, a fandom pick, a pick based out of the faint hope that there would be something to cheer for come April other than another draft lottery. I was wrong. This was the best wrong I had ever been.

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The Kings are really starting to look like the Kings again

Posted by Ryan Lambert under Thoughts on Apr 24, 2013

This guy with the funny stick and big pads is getting good again.

This guy with the funny stick and big pads is getting good again.

For much of the year the Los Angeles Kings, reigning Stanley Cup champions though they may be, have languished in relative mediocrity. Anaheim jumped out to such a big lead in the Pacific that their neighbors never really got a chance to stake a claim to the tops division, and even if they wanted to, they never really played well enough to warrant it.

It’s looking more and more, though, like the Kings are going to come a lot closer to the Ducks than anyone had a reason to believe even a few weeks ago, having overcome a rather bizarre handicap.

Jonathan Quick — who, if Sergei Bobrovsky is becoming a clearer Hart contender as the Blue Jackets keep winning, should have won that award last season instead of Evgeni Malkin as well as the Vezina taken by Henrik Lundqvist — has for most of the season been playing like absolute garbage. His stats stand at pathetic marks of 2.44/.901, with an even-strength save percentage of .908. The save percentages are actually worse than Ondrej Pavelec’s numbers, and it’s important to remember that Pavelec is terrible.

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2 new trades, 2 new reactions: Jay Bouwmeester and Robyn Regehr get new sweaters

Posted by Justin Bourne under Thoughts, Trades on Apr 02, 2013

Calgary Flames v Colorado Avalanche

In an ongoing effort to make Actual Trade Deadline Day as painful as possible for those of us covering it, two more (relatively) big name players were dealt yesterday. Let’s take a look at the deals, and share some thoughts.

Trade

To St. Louis: Jay Bouwmeester

To Calgary: The Blues 2013 1st-round pick, minor-league d-man Mark Cundari, goaltender Reto Berra of the Swiss League. Read the rest of this entry »

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How Corsi and Fenwick encourage a completely backwards view of hockey (and are still useful)

Posted by Daniel Wagner under Statistics, Thoughts on Mar 12, 2013

Marek Zidlicky, Jhonas Enroth, and a Corsi Event. Not pictured: a high-quality scoring chance. (Jim McIsaac, Getty Images)

Marek Zidlicky, Jhonas Enroth, and a Corsi Event. Not pictured: a high-quality scoring chance. (Jim McIsaac, Getty Images)

Last week, Cam Charron wrote about the NHL’s counting problem here at Backhand Shelf, bemoaning the secrecy of NHL teams when it comes to advanced statistics. One part in particular, however, caught my eye when he talked about hockey’s “Aha!” moment when it comes to statistics.

There’s a reference in the Friedman piece to Craig MacTavish walking around looking for the “Aha!” moment when it comes to hockey analytics. I don’t think MacTavish has realized that half the hockey world is a step ahead of him in that regard. The “Aha!” moment comes when you realize that shots are a hell of a lot more predictive than goals for determining future events. As soon as you realize that hockey is a game between two teams trying to take shots on goal, I think the rest of it falls into place.

Cam isn’t really wrong, but this is also one of the biggest problems that people seem to have with so-called advanced statistics: they’re almost entirely reliant on counting shots. Corsi and Fenwick are both shot-based statistics that are pretty much the opposite of “advanced.” All they are is adding and subtracting shots. The more shots for your team and the fewer shots against, the better. Outshoot your opponent enough, particularly at the right time of the game (such as when the score is tied or within one goal), and you’ll win a lot more games than you lose.

If this seems like an incredibly simplistic view of hockey, that’s because it is. It’s also a completely inaccurate view of hockey. That isn’t to say that Corsi and Fenwick aren’t useful, because they certainly are. As Cam points out, shot-based analytics have impressive predictive power. But they also are coming at hockey from the completely wrong end.

I believe this is part of the reason why so many people are resistant to shot-based statistics. What matters is winning, winning requires goals, and a high volume of shots does not, strictly speaking, create goals. Shots are a by-product and not a cause.

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Five stray thoughts on a Tuesday afternoon: live hockey edition

Posted by Justin Bourne under One Man's Opinion, Thoughts on Mar 05, 2013

Pittsburgh Penguins v New Jersey Devils

Last night I had the distinct pleasure of attending a hockey game with some excellent seats, and over the course of the game, I thought some thoughts. Because I write for a living, I thought “Hey, maybe if I jot down these thoughts, I can write said thoughts in a post about my thoughts.”

THOUGHTS.

Anyway, the game was between the New Jersey Devils and the Toronto Maple Leafs.

These are those thoughts.

***

Anthem time

I can’t help but think how absolutely overwhelming (and awesome) it must be for the boys and girls who get to skate out before the game, cut a lap with the flag, and stand on the blueline for the national anthems in Toronto (or anywhere). I played in front of some sizeable crowds over the years, and I gotta say, I never really got over that part. It’s always cool. You can hear the whole crowd sing along to the anthem, which is better than being in the crowd, in which case you can only hear the terrible person behind you. Also, you get to rock on your skates, which is a pretty fun habit to get into. (Just don’t forget to take off your helmet like I did in North Dakota, cage and all. I was a little preoccupied thinking about my first shift.)

Has to be a lifelong memory for those kids.

The Grocery Stick Skate during TV timeouts

For those of you who don’t know, “grocery stick” refers to a player who gets off after a shift, shuffles towards the middle of the bench as players roll out, then doesn’t get his number called for a long time, so he ends up just being the divider for the d-men and forwards.

Anyway, Read the rest of this entry »

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Cody Hodgson is the early leader for best sophomore of the year

Posted by Daniel Wagner under Analysis, Thoughts on Mar 04, 2013

(Bill Wippert, Getty Images)

(Bill Wippert, Getty Images)

The battle for the Calder trophy is shaping up to be a good one: Cory Conacher’s 18 points in 21 games has him as the favourite, but Jonathan Huberdeau’s 10 goals is tops among rookies and Justin Schultz is playing nearly 23 minutes a night for the Oilers. A strong push from Brendan Gallagher, Nail Yakupov, Alex Galchenyuk, Dougie Hamilton, or one of half-a-dozen other rookies could see them in the running by the end of the season.

But what about last year’s rookies? Early last season, it looked like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was going to run away with the Calder, but an injury and strong all-around play from Gabriel Landeskog saw him lose out in the end. Meanwhile, Adam Henrique and Matt Read made a case for themselves with their two-way play and solid offensive numbers.

How are this season’s second-year players handling the dreaded sophomore slump and who is making a case for being the best sophomore this season? So far, Cody Hodgson is leading the way thanks to a great offensive start to the season and the struggles of last season’s Calder candidates.

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Perception and how fans can love dirty players

Posted by Daniel Wagner under Opinion, Thoughts on Feb 21, 2013

(Bill Wippert, Getty Images)

(Bill Wippert, Getty Images)

Jannik Hansen is a goon. Jannik Hansen is a clean, honest player.

Matt Cooke is reckless and dangerous. Matt Cooke is a changed man.

Danny Briere is the dirtiest player in the league. Danny Briere is a lovable little guy.

Perception is a funny thing: the same play, player, game, or season can be viewed in thousands of different ways, depending on your frame of reference. If you’re a Blackhawks fan, you’re more likely to have seen Jannik Hansen’s hit on Marian Hossa as intentional and malicious than if you were, say, a Canucks fan. If you thought that Matt Cooke sliced Erik Karlsson’s achilles tendon with his skate on purpose, you’re probably not a Penguins fan. If you find the idea laughable that lovable little Danny Briere could be called dirty, you’re probably a Flyers fan.

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