By: Alex Campbell

Fellow theScore employee and hardcore Raptors fan Alex Campbell looks into the relationship between Toronto’s three-point shooting and their overall success.

Sometimes it takes something to be pointed out to you before you really begin to notice. Grantland’s Zach Lowe wrote this piece on the Knicks and their three-point shooting back on December 14. At the time, the Knicks were leading the Eastern Conference with a record of 17-5, had just beaten the Lakers at the Garden the night before and, according to Lowe, were hitting 41% of their three-point shots – shots they were attempting at a record pace.

The Raptors, meanwhile, were struggling. On December 14, they came home to the Air Canada Centre to face the Mavericks with a 4-19 record, were in the midst of a six-game losing streak and had lost 12 of their last 13 games. But suddenly, the Raptors began to have success. They pounded the Mavericks by 21 while hitting 12 three-pointers for just the second time on the year. That result kick-started a five-game winning streak, and after beating the Bobcats on January 11, the Raptors had won 10 of 13 games.

During the streak, I really began to pay attention to the three-point shooting, and an increase in three-point attempts played a factor in helping the Raptors move their way up the standings. Prior to the game against the Mavericks on December 14, the Raptors were averaging seven made three-pointers on 21.1 attempts per game (33% as a team). But during the 13-game run, the Raptors increased their average to nine made three-pointers on 24.9 attempts per game (36%).

While it’s difficult to point to just one player as the main catalyst for the increased three-point production during the Raptors’ run, Alan Anderson’s return to the Raptors line-up from injury was huge. During the 13-game sample, Anderson averaged a team-high 2.3 made three-pointers on 6.1 attempts, 0.3 made three-pointers and 0.6 attempts above his season average. Anderson is the team’s leading three-point shooter this season in terms of shots made, with 2.0 made three-pointers per game and 2.8 made three-pointers per 36 minutes of action. Terrence Ross, Kyle Lowry and Jose Calderon were also key contributors from behind the three-point line during the successful string of games, making 1.75, 1.71 and 1.5 three-pointers per game, respectively, although Lowry only played the last seven games of the run due to injury.

The Raptors most recent four-game losing streak saw them revert back to where they were earlier this season. With the exception of Friday night’s game in Philadelphia, where they made 11 of their 25 three-point attempts and really should have come out with the win, the Raptors have been shooting from deep way less (14 attempts per game, excluding Friday), and therefore, making less (5.3 attempts made per game, excluding Friday).

Despite struggling with the three-point shot down the stretch on Friday, and to a certain extent on Sunday, the Raptors are better off shooting the three more often than they have during their recent losing streak. The Knicks are continuing to shoot threes at a high rate and it’s leading to success. They have a 25-13 record to lead the Atlantic Division, and they have hit the most three-point shots in the league (425), while attempting the second-highest amount (1,098). The Raptors, on the other hand, sit ninth in the league in three-pointers made (311) and are eighth in three-pointers attempted (896), with 38% of the three-pointers they’ve made this season coming during the 13-game stretch where the team went 10-3.

Four players in the rotation right now (Anderson, Ross, Calderon and Lowry) are capable of serious hot streaks from deep, and we’ve seen several of those hot streaks recently, including Friday against Philadelphia with Ross, last Sunday against Milwaukee with Calderon and Sunday before that against Oklahoma City with Anderson (Lowry’s back-to-back threes against the Lakers yesterday helped the Raptors stem the L.A. tide as well). It’s easy to say a basketball team will see more success with more three-pointers made, but you have to take them first, and the Raptors’ recent hot and cold streaks are a perfect example of that.

Not to mention that as a fan of this team, it’s fun to watch when the threes are dropping one after another.

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Comments (9)

  1. Trying to get another historic 3 point made streak? yes please

  2. I like 3 point shots as much as anyone, but the key difference here is that the Knicks as a team are excellent behind the arc, while the Raptors struggle to be average. Only Calderon & Lowry are actually good, Anderson & Ross are just meh.

  3. Considering the Raptors currently have the league’s 20th worst 3-point percentage and 19th-worst FG%, I don’t think trying more 3s is going to help them very much (not to mention being 20th at ORb%). Also, taking more 3s would likely take away from their free throws (14th in FTAs).

    Toronto’s ORat is 11th and their DRat is 26th, so improving the defense seems a lot more important than the offensive, imho.

    • Oh, I forgot to thank Alex Campbell for joining the blog. I may have disagreed with his post, but I appreciate having more to read and think about.

    • 20th worst? You mean 19 teams are worse rhan them? Who’s 1st worst?

      • It takes a brave man to complain about someone’s writing while leaving a typo of his own. “rhan”.

        If there was an “edit” function, I would clean up my comment, but there’s not. Thanks for adding so much to this discussion.

  4. I’m down with it, but only as long as Fields and DD are taking most of them

    / End Sarcasm

  5. This is a huge problem with the current starting lineup. You need to shoot threes to build a decent offence in this day and age, and there’s only starter, Calderon, who has that skill, and he’s our setup guy. Fields and Derozan can jack up more attempts all they want, but when they’re hitting less than 30% of them it’s not going to do us a whole hell of a lot of good. We badly need at least one starting wing guy who can shoot – otherwise we’ll end up with a certain mopey Italian starting again.

  6. I agree that a higher three point rate from Anderson, Lowry, Calderon, and Ross would be beneficial but only on two conditions. The first that the team has to be willing to adjust their offence if the three ball isn’t dropping for a particular player. We’ve all seen it many times this season where guys even of Lowry’s caliber are missing wide open looks beyond the arc. When that’s happening, other players need to step up as the shooter or the ball needs to get down low to amir and davis. Secondly, since the Raptors are only an average team at shooting beyond the arc, the 4 shooters previously mentioned need to have good, if not great looks the majority of the time. This is only going to come if the defence is moved to the interior by guys like Deronzan. I don’t think the raptors will have much success beyond the arc unless your athletic guys like Ross and Derozan are forcing the defence inside and making their passing on point.

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