Dirk Nowitzki

On the first full week of each month this season, I’m going to rank the top 10 NBA players at each position based on how I expect them to perform in the coming month. If a player is injured and is expected to miss most of the month, then they probably won’t make the list regardless of his value when healthy. I’ll rank the point guards on Monday, the shooting guards on Tuesday … you get the picture.  Your feedback is welcome, even if you want to tell me how incredibly, irredeemably clueless I am.

No position was more in flux than power forward in the NBA’s first few games. The established structure between the “great” and the “pretty good” appears to be crumbling and it will be very interesting to see if the upstarts can maintain their performance while the so-called elite power forwards need to shake off the rust if they’re going to continue to be considered among the top-five at their position.

10. (5.) Amar’e Stoudemire, New York Knicks — 2010-11 stats: 3 GP, 35.7 MPG, 21.3 PPG, 3.0 APG, 7.7 RPG, 0.0 SPG, 1.3 BPG, .460 FG%, .000 3P%, .696 FT%, 14.7 PER

One of the lesser-discussed and underrated benefits of Amar’e playing with Steve Nash was that he frequently caught the ball in ideal situations to finish with minimal risk of turning the ball over. Now that he has to create for himself more than he used to and he’s clearly the focus of the opposition defense, he’s turned the ball over a staggering 5.7 times per game in his first three games as a Knick. There’s no question that hell average at least 20 points per game this season, but at what cost?

9. (New entry) Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers — 2010-11 stats: 5 GP, 35.0 MPG, 16.6 PPG, 3.6 APG, 11.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 0.4 BPG, .700 FG%, .800 3P%, .556 FT%, 22.9 PER

I’m of two minds about the silly numbers Lamar Odom is putting up so far. On the one hand, he’s never sustained anything close to this kind of performance over an entire season and his shooting percentages are obviously going to decline. On the other hand, he’s always been a superstar talent so it wouldn’t be the most shocking thing to happen in the NBA this season if he made his first All-Star Game appearance at the age of 31. It must be that Kardashian magic rubbing off on him.

8. (New entry) Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers — 2010-11 stats: 5 GP, 34.4 MPG, 17.0 PPG, 1.6 APG, 10.0 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 0.2 BPG, .471 FG%, .000 3P%, .525 FT%, 17.4 PER

Don’t ask me to answer the question about whether Griffin or John Wall is the most exciting rookie to watch — it’s not fair to slight either of them so let’s call it a tie. Griffin is a more muscular and probably less promiscuous Shawn Kemp and I always assumed he’s average around 17 and 10 in his rookie season so I’m certainly not shocked by his explosion onto the NBA scene. The real question is whether or not he can maintain his energy on a team that might be lucky to win 30 games.

7. (New entry) Luis Scola, Houston Rockets — 2010-11 stats: 4 GP, 36 MPG, 22.8 PPG, 2.8 APG, 14.5 RPG, 0.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .507 FG%, .000 3P%, .739 FT%, 25.5 PER

OK, so maybe his performance in the FIBA tournament wasn’t a fluke, after all. As spectacular as his numbers are, it needs to be pointed out that the Rockets are 0-4 and have the worst Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) in the NBA at the moment. Scola isn’t primarily to blame for that, but he leads the team in minutes played and tends to struggle guarding stronger big men. Plus, let’s see if he’s even averaging 20 and 10 at this time next month.

6. (New entry) Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz — 2010-11 stats: 4 GP, 34.5 MPG, 21.3 PPG, 3.5 APG, 10.8 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 0,5 BPG, .632 FG%, .000 3P%, .685 FT%, 26.7 PER

I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that Jazz fans aren’t missing Carlos Boozer right now. It’s truly uncanny how Utah managed to draft a player who is not only the closest approximation to Boozer in the NBA, he was also drafted in the second round. Millsap is making defenses pay from mid-range even more than Boozer used to while still being a force around the rim. Perhaps more significantly in the big picture, Millsap is making $7.6 million compared to Boozer’s $14.4 million this season.

Blake Griffin
5. (New entry) Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks — 2010-11 stats: 5 GP, 31.6 MPG, 12.6 PPG, 3.6 APG, 9.8 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 4.0 BPG, .462 FG%, .600 3P%, .632 FT%, 20.5 PER

He’s only a new entry because I foolishly believed information I received in the preseason that he would play the majority of his minutes at small forward. Regardless, there might not be an NBA player who inspires more of a combination of frustration and excitement than Josh Smith. A month probably does not go by without the Hawks considering trading him, but then he has a 22-points, 11-rebounds, four-assists, two-blocks performance like last night, and Hawks fans and management alike are reminded about what a unique talent they have in Atlanta.

4. (4.) Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics — 2010-11 stats: 5 GP, 33.0 MPG, 15.6 PPG, 1.4 APG, 9.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 0.8 BPG, .524 FG%, .000 3P%, .750 FT%, 16.1 PER

He’s moving well again and his ability to intimidate and neutralize Chris Bosh might be the Celtics’ most crucial weapon in attempting to defeat the mighty Heat  in May. That “cancer patient” remark to Charlie V. was seriously uncool, though.

3. (3.) Chris Bosh, Miami Heat — 2010-11 stats: 5 GP, 31.8 MPG, 13.0 PPG, 1.6 APG, 6.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .426 FG%, .000 3P%, .826 FT%, 16.3 PER

So Chris Bosh is a role player now. This is supposed to be a surprise? And is it supposed to mean he sucks now? As we saw in the 2008 Olympics, Bosh can be a very effective defender if that’s where he’s expected to exert his energy. Fast forward to this season when the Miami Heat are 4-1 with the best Defensive Rating in the league — and Bosh’s quickness on perimeter and pick-and-roll defense have a lot to do with that. He may finish with averages around 15 points and nine rebounds this season, but don’t be fooled into thinking that means he’s a disappointment.

2. (1.) Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs — 2010-11 stats: 4 GP, 31.0 MPG, 17.3 PPG, 2.0 APG, 10.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 1.8 BPG, .638 FG%, .000 3P%, .750 FT%, 23.8 PER

He continues to put up impressive numbers, but he will never again be the dominant defensive presence in the post he was for the past decade. That step or two he’s lost means that a few opposition shot attempts in the lane per game that would have been blocked or bothered five years ago now have a realistic chance of going in. This is the reason I can’t take anyone seriously when they think the Spurs could contend in the West this season.

1. (2.) Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks — 2010-11 stats: 4 GP, 36.0 MPG, 26.5 PPG, 1.5 APG, 9,8 RPG, 0.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .603 FG%, .333 3P%, .773 FT%, 26.9 PER

In the same way that Nowitzki is turning back the clock with his ’70s-style mane and facial hair, he’s started off this season performing like he was the Dirk of five years ago. The key difference is that he’s all but abandoned the three-point shot that used to be such a key weapon in his arsenal. It’s hard to argue with his success, but I do wonder why a guy with a career success rate of 38 percent beyond the arc who used to shoot five times per game from that range now considers the trey to be an afterthought with just three 3PAs through four games. Regardless, he’s reminded us that he’s the most unstoppable offensive big man in the game and he’s also looking unusually spry on defense and the boards so far. It’s gotta be the hair.

Comments (15)

  1. Mmmmm where’s Pau?? Center? mmm well without Bynum he’s playing C, but he’s a PF, doesn’t he?

  2. No love for EB? Starting the season off averaging 18 and 9.6. I don’t expect it to last so it would’ve been nice to have seen him make the cut atleast once. Hopefully I’m wrong and keeps putting up numbers.

  3. David: Did you notice that Odom is in this list? Bynum’s never healthy. Until he’s back, Pau’s a C and Odom’s a PF.

    Joe: Who would you recommend I boot from the list to include EB? Amare? Odom? Griffin? Brand’s made a nice comeback, but he’s not in the top-10 discussion yet.

  4. No LaMarcus Aldridge? PER of 21.0, PPG of 18.8, RPG 9.2, BPG 1.6 and a 4-1 record. In my mind, he clearly belongs on this list…

  5. Nice, but hey. Griffin. I know the Clippers have lost a lot already, but without Griffin they’re BAD. A couple (or something like 50) HUGE dunks as well. I would say he has been better than Millsap, or maybe even Josh Smith.

  6. Ben: These rankings are based on my projection on how they’ll perform in the next month. if Aldridge sustains that level throughout November, then he’ll probably be in the December rankings.

  7. @ Andy : Griffin is making me jump from my seat, I really like him but I think his crazy dunks make him look better then he really is right now. He’ll be great but for now he’s a great rookie with room for improvement.

    With Ben bringing up Aldridge we realise how the first paragraph of the ranking is true : so much talent this year… :-)

  8. Scott: yeah, i like your point: Bynum is never healthy. What a sad true for Lakers…

  9. Bosh always gets owned when playing against Garnett. Now they are both on star studded teams, and Garnett is putting up better numbers. I think those two should be switched in the rankings.

    Also Paul Milsap is too high. He puts up numbers, but he’s too short to come up big when it matters against a team like the Lakers or Celtics.

  10. I agree with most of your rankings except Garnett and you will see the old big three will be more impressive I think its Orlando and the Celts

  11. Um LaMarcus Aldridge?

  12. sorry Tony, that was actually for Chris.

  13. Any chance of including a “Bumped from Top 10″ or “On the bubble” list of players not quite there?

    Might be my only chance to see a Raptor on this page this year.

  14. i hate seeing superstars like dirk miss out on their rings, this year maybe?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *