Dirk Nowitzki

On the first full week of each month this season, I’m going to rank the top 10 NBA players at each position based on how I expect them to perform in the coming month. If a player is injured and is expected to miss most of the month, then they probably won’t make the list regardless of his value when healthy. I’ll rank the point guards on Monday, the shooting guards on Tuesday … you get the picture.  Your feedback is welcome, even if you want to tell me how incredibly, irredeemably clueless I am.

Amar’e Stoudemire was dropped from this list because he’s playing the majority of his minutes at center for the Knicks and I need to see a bit more evidence that Carlos Boozer is fully recovered from his injury before he rejoins these rankings. Aside from that, the usual suspects remain in the upper rankings although they’ve been shuffled around a little.

10. (Last month: 7.) Luis Scola, Houston Rockets — 2010-11 stats: 21 GP, 33.6 MPG, 21.0 PPG, 2.1 APG, 8.9 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.7 BPG, .519 FG%, .000 3P%, .675 FT%, 21.4 PER

Impressive numbers, without question. But they’re inflated because of the absence of Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks, and he’s soft defensively.

9. (8.) Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers — 2010-11 stats: 23 GP, 35.9 MPG, 20.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 11.7 RPG, 0.8 SPG, 0.7 BPG, .510 FG%, .000 3P%, .575 FT%, 20.9 PER

He’s probably the most fun player to watch in the NBA right now, but concerns about Griffin’s defense have proven to be valid. And he’s actually a pretty inefficient player on offense because of his terrible free throw shooting. If I awarded points for style, he’d definitely be higher in this list.

8. (New entry) Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves — 2010-11 stats: 22 GP, 34.6 MPG, 20.1 PPG, 2.1 APG, 15.5 RPG, 0.5 SPG, 0.5 BPG, .433 FG%, .409 3P%, .892 FT%, 23.5 PER

The last player to average 20 points and 15 rebounds over an entire season was Moses Malone in 1982-83, and Moses couldn’t shoot three-pointers. He could defend well and block shots though, which you can’t really say about Mr. Love.

7. (6.) Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz — 2010-11 stats: 23 GP, 35.6 MPG, 17.9 PPG, 2.4 APG, 8.2 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG, .559 FG%, .571 3P%, .735 FT%, 21.5 PER

If you’re a 16-7 team and you’re only paying your second-best player around $8 million per season, you have to be fairly pleased. He’s not quite as prodigious a scorer or rebounder as Boozer was for the Jazz, but he’s a better defender and he has a much cleaner medical record.

6. (2.) Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs — 2010-11 stats: 21 GP, 28.9 MPG, 13.7 PPG, 3.2 APG, 9.2 RPG, 0.9 SPG, 1.8 BPG, .489 FG%, .000 3P%, .709 FT%, 21.8 PER

Duncan would be higher on this list if he played more, but Coach Pop is obviously resting him for the playoffs. In spite of his reduced mobility, he’s still one of the better post defenders in the game.

Chris Bosh and Josh Smith
5. (3.) Chris Bosh, Miami Heat — 2010-11 stats: 23 GP, 34.4 MPG, 17.9 PPG, 1.9 APG, 7.6 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.6 BPG, .498 FG%, .333 3P%, .800 FT%, 19.6 PER

Definitely the hardest player to rank in this or probably any of these December rankings. Some people say he isn’t rebounding enough, but the Heat are ninth in the league in rebound differential so that doesn’t appear to be a problem. He doesn’t have a reputation as a strong defender but he’s underrated at guarding athletic power forwards one-on-one. No matter how you want to judge his tenure with the Heat so far, the panicked chatter suggesting he should be traded has died off.

4. (9.) Lamar Odom, Los Angeles Lakers — 2010-11 stats: 22 GP, 35.5 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 3.3 APG, 10.0 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG, .576 FG%, .405 3P%, .680 FT%, 19.4 PER

He turns 32 next month and he’s playing the best basketball of his 12-season career — must be the luck of the Kardashians. I guess we should expect to see Kris Humphries in this list next month?

3. (5.) Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks — 2010-11 stats: 23 GP, 33.0 MPG, 15.9 PPG, 3.9 APG, 8.8 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 2.3 BPG, .498 FG%, .469 3P%, .692 FT%, 21.8 PER

Answer this question for me: Why does Hawks coach Larry Drew have a problem with Josh Smith shooting jumpers if they’re going in? According to hoopdata.com, Smith’s field goal percentages from 10-15 feet, 16-23 feet, and from three-point range are all at their highest in his last five seasons. Maybe he can keep it up, maybe he can’t. But we know what he can do with the rest of his game and I will be surprised and a little appalled if he doesn’t play in his first All-Star game this season.

2. (4.) Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics — 2010-11 stats: 21 GP, 32.6 MPG, 15.7 PPG, 2.3 APG, 9.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 0.7 BPG, .540 FG%, .000 3P%, .864 FT%, 21.0 PER

He’s still a dick and he’s still the best defender at his position in the NBA. The Celtics lead the league in Defensive Rating with just 99.2 points allowed per 100 possessions and Garnett is once again the team’s anchor on that end of the court. K.G. also currently has career highs in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. A healthy Garnett playing at this level makes his team very difficult to beat.

1. (1.) Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks — 2010-11 stats: 21 GP, 36.0 MPG, 24.9 PPG, 2.2 APG, 7.4 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG, .553 FG%, .390 3P%, .851 FT%, 24.4 PER

Here’s your league MVP at the one-quarter mark of this season. How valuable is Dirk Nowitzki to the Mavericks? According to 82games.com, they outscore their opponents by 15.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and they get outscored by 17.0 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench. If Nowitzki keeps up his scoring average over the next month, he’ll be 24th in all-time scoring by the time I do next month’s power forward rankings — passing Larry Bird and Gary Payton along the way.

Comments (6)

  1. Very well done as always. I especially liked the bosh point. I’ll be interested to see where amare lands on the center list.

  2. I wanted to argue about Amare being on the center list instead of this one, but then I checked 82games.com and saw that he is indeed playing more at center. Good call.

  3. I disagree with the nowitzki ranking, simply because i don’t think he can keep up his obscene shooting percentages, and he doesn’t do enough when he’s not scoring efficiently. this last month though? he definitely deserved it

  4. Moses Malone couldnt shoot the 3 ball.

  5. Gotta give Kevin Love much more love. Somewhere around 3rd or 4th, probably. The fact that he has the 2nd highest PER next to Dirk has to merit consideration even if he’s on a terrible squad.

  6. i like that defence is incorporated into this post. you can tell it wasn’t written by a 15 year old

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