15 points have decided the first four games of this year’s NBA Finals, with the last three games featuring winning margins of two, three and two. Through that lens, Miami’s 8-point Game 1 win seems like a blowout. Saying these Finals are close is an understatement. They are very close.

So close that Chris Bosh can’t believe either team is ever winning. From Matt Moore:

Bosh on how close the series is: “You look at the stat sheet and you’re like ‘How did we win that game?!” then you look at [Tuesday] night ‘How did we lose that game?!’”

Here’s how close the series is. The Heat are averaging 89.0 points per game, the Mavericks are averaging 88.2. Miami is shooting .428 from the field, Dallas is knocking down shots at a .418 clip, just one less made shot for every hundred taken. Miami turns the ball over 13.0 times a game, Dallas is a little looser, turning it over 13.1 times a game. The Mavericks grabs 40 rebounds a game, Miami snags 39, meaning Dallas grabs 50.4 percent of the series’ available rebounds.

All together, over the course of 100 possessions, this means the Heat have a 0.63-point advantage. In a series that’s seen about 84 possessions per game, that’s hardly anything.

That’s why this series has been so great, and why we’ve seen the last three games come down to the final few possessions. For whatever reason, these two teams have matched each other perfectly, and it’s been great to watch, even if the games haven’t always been the most gorgeous displays of basketball.

Chris Bosh is right. When you look at the stats, it’s hard to figure out how either team wins any game. Let’s keep it like that for three more games because this thing should never end.

Comments (3)

  1. I, for one, would like this series to end as soon as possible. Seriously, for about 85%-90% of the series, the level of basketball has been downright horrible. I know some good defense from both teams has somewhat influenced the offensive performances, but both team make many, many bad decisions and take terrible shots when it matters.

    I am disappoint so far. It’s now a two out of three, and the real “must-win” games start now. I hope the players realize that they have no choice but to start playing decent basketball.

  2. Trey, great post. But you really should check out the link Jimbo gave up there and make a post about that. It’s a hilarious train wreck!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *